Meanwhile, the narrative being argued rather successfully is that she could have glassed the planet but chose, rather deliberately, not to. Given that we all know, and that Falcon knows, it doesn't take a doomsday weapon that long to spool up, what conclusion might we draw from the Shiigeru taking so long to do so?
I had
hoped this was the case, but analyzing the logs showed that she actually announced being unable to fire.
I'm inclined to think it was sabotaged. Going by the belief that this entire buildup, from the planet riots to the naval assault, has been a Black Eagles-orchestrated special operations campaign, a sabotage explains just why the Federation was willing to risk an attack. I really don't think the Federation would have risked an attack if they didn't have some way of preventing the Levi from firing. A sabotage is the most likely explanation for why they finally decided to launch an attack.
My personal conclusion is: Leftover militants on the planet from the One Day War arm and train populace. They are somehow are able to get into clandestine contact with the Federation outside the planet, and begin planning to initiate an uprising once BE gives the word. BE meanwhile works on installing/developing agents in the Caldari State (something Heth seemingly got wind of, going by his sudden scrambling to take down Fed elements within the State), one of whom happens to get installed on the Leviathan, in doomsday operation. With that operative able to sabotage the Leviaathan and insure it could not bombard the planet, BE triggers the plan, ordering the insurgents on the planet to rise up, sending in mercenaries, and pulling off a portion of the Fed fleet for "naval exercises" in preparation to jump them back into Luminaire space once the time is right.
Whether CONCORD was involved in the plan or just happened to at the wrong place at the wrong time I'm unsure. But the rest all reeks of pretty classic
unconventional warfare, and it follows the Seven Step Operational Model pretty much to the letter. Unconventional warfare is, of course, BE specialty, and if this
is what happened, it shows how badass BE are. BE are what the Provists should have been, ruthless
and competent. Of course, this really supports Vikarion's comments about Gallente always getting the better deal. <.<
So while I'd have loved for Yanala to have actually willingly withheld, and I think that would have been the best outcome for the Caldari as it would have given them the moral highground, it's seeming more likely to me that the Levi's ability to bombard was simply sabotaged.
There's also been Caellech's argument that the Leviathan had moved out of range, and that's why it wouldn't fire, though that then puts us back into the boat of, "why did the Federation choose to risk the bombardment?" (it also brings up the question of why would Yanala have attempted to fire while out of range, which would have been an incredibly noobish thing to do). Sabotage is the one thing that both explains why the Levi wouldn't fire
and why the Fed chose to finally launch an assault.