I don't think it'd be a smart move to oust the Russian oil. The russian economy depends a lot on selling oil to Europe. If we stop buying it, the Russians will see us as responsible for the crash of their economy - and not without reason. In the end that will lead to war, even if Russia can't win it - because they loose as well when they don't and in war they at least feel as if they can do something about their situation.
I'm repeating myself: There can't be peace in Europe against Russia, it's only possible with Russia.
Also, while I think it plays some role, it's not so much about 'outdated' worldviews informing policy making. Having studied history, it seems to me that this model is brought up again and again: Yet in the end interest that are held and ways to pursue them remain largely the same: Only the veneer in which we dress them change, in my opinion.
The 1. point is really nothing new. It's just a bit simpler do do so nowadays. But how many people really do connect? It's a minority. And even if they do, few people generalize their experiences. It can be seen when it's about Christians: The new anti-religious atheists know from experience quite often that not all theists are Westboro fanatics. Yet they apparently love to talk and argue as if all Christians were.
The 2. point is peobably nothing new at all. A working economy is of very high importance for any state's survival. Those that control the economy have always had proportional influence. You can easily see that already in the crusades, especially the fourth, which ended exactly where the economic interests were fulfilled: In Konstantinople.
I personally rather do buy some Russian oil, enjoy friendly trading relations with them and have a peacful Europe, then not buying the oil, be 'free of Russian influence' and be on the brink of a war, because Russia crashes.
That's what I'm trying to tell you, though. The entire thought of Russia perhaps being on the brink of war because their oil interests are about to be ousted, it doesn't
actually matter. They have access to nuclear weapons, massive arms technologies and a colossal standing army... and technically speaking none of these are worthwhile cards. Putin's actual cards include having a currently existing oil infrastructure, and he just threw that one in the pot and let anyone else who has a hand come to play. And they will.
What's Putin going to do? Start a war in the Baltics with NATO? Nuke Kiev? Think that's going to end on a positive note for his country? He wrote himself into a corner, and there isn't a single thing he can do about it that's going to end up as a surefire gain. His military options might be vast and varied, but none of them will win him anything. At issue here is that the rulebook was fundamentally re-written with the advent of the world economy in the modern world. You've described the scenario perfectly, but I don't think you realized the crucial detail.
Essentially, the US and EU can and have dealt significant damage to Russia without firing a shot. They did it by using Crimea as a context by which to cripple Russia's economy. They're calling Putin's bluff, knowing they have the military superiority, by crashing Russia out of Europe and taking what actually matters. Customers. With fewer people to sell to in the world and with fewer goods he can use as leverage, Putin's in danger of bleeding out his own country. Before, he could at least say that gas supplies had relatively inflexible pricing and he'd have that as a way to force his neighbors to reckon with him. With the Saudis dropping oil prices and the EU having a plethora of sellers interested, that's not a tenable position.
In essence, Putin is trying to intimidate nations but he's actually fighting corporations, and he doesn't have the ammunition or position to do that. He has what he needs to try to fight Poland or Ukraine, not Shell or Vector. They don't care if there's anti-American sentiment (which is sort of ironic, considering America's basically holding up its hands and following Europe's bouncing ball at this point). In fact, arms companies will actually
make money based on polls showing the Russians as angry and fixing to invade.
It doesn't matter that Putin would have to be absolutely stupid to launch that attack, they just need to paint him with the correct paint. All Putin's done at this point is taken off his clothes and made sure to raise his arms so they could make sure he had full coverage. It's a tactical blunder, and it's based almost exclusively on not understanding what's going on in the world around him. Re-taking Crimea is a good move in the sense of the 1960s, it's an invitation to be taken advantage of today.
And the Russian people, in the end, will be the ones that pay for it, as they have been paying already. If there's one group of people that these corporate interests don't give a toss about, it's what happens to the Russian people after they take over former Russian markets and crash the currency. Once the wind blows through and more reliable situations exist in Russia for these corporate interests, they can always re-speculate in Russia and make money all over again.
@Vic:
Moldova and even Georgia have already expressed interest in EU application... And I can understand why Georgia did so (pretty much like the Baltic Countries, but also we often forget how countries like Slovenia have gone from poverty and third world economy to a booming modern country)... But that is exactly what is pissing Putin to no end. He is completely surrounded, and directly at his doors. I can understand why he sees it as a direct threat, and why all this military muscle flexing and nuclear rearmament is happening and showcased with such... desperation.
Turkey is a delicate matter and while it was hotly debate 10 years ago, now that they have elected Erdogan and go the way they are going, nobody bothers with the debate anymore, Turkey basically decided the way they want to go for themselves...
Though oil pipelines are not excluded to still go through, the main issue being that Russia doesn't like it and applies pressure against it, especially since Iran is getting closer to a removal of economical penalties...
There is also the fact that while we look at the real reasons behind it as you nicely explained, there is still a hefty dose of ideology and politics that have to play a certain lever, especially for Putin who is de facto the leader of the traditionalist world and has to cater at least a minimum to the people he represents. I don't think Putin cares for that ideology, but the realities of politics and representation literally demand that he doesn't forget it. While it is the sugarcoat of it, the things that are shown in the media and the justifications for everything as usual, I think that ideological conflict goes deeper since it's basically a clash between traditionalist views (which are a wide majority in the world) and postmodern views.
For sure, and I should point out as to the above, I'm in no way saying that what you're describing isn't what people
think nor that it's far from a political football. You don't even have to look outside your own country, no matter what it is, to know that "traditional values" and looking backward to earlier times plays well with certain segments of the population (a.k.a. the baby boom). You can gain political power in your own nation this way. That doesn't mean it's a good idea to see the world that way, because global power in the age of ICBMs, air superiority, and of course the ability to crush your enemies economically has made the physical distances of borders and locations almost completely irrelevant.
By that, I mean you can see many people having an aneurysm over whether or not to move weapons into the Baltics. It's a purely symbolic move on the part of anyone involved in doing it (though it is exactly the kind of thing weapons manufacturers make money on) and it represents no actual additional threat to Russia. However, that's what people are focusing on. They're not focusing on what happens if domestic and friendly nations' companies move in on Russian markets and take advantage of their weakness. That's the real threat to Russia, here, because Russia can piss off its neighbors enough to guarantee it will lose a fight with BP. And then Putin will need to somehow convince his neighbors that his oil is worth trusting him over because it's (hopefully) cheaper.
That hearkening for simpler times completely exists, and it's a sentiment that has some kind of exploitation in every nation on the planet to one degree or another. I don't deny it's there or that Putin has to handle it. The problem is, I actually do think Putin buys into that philosophy. Nobody who didn't would sell his economic position to suit a land grab of Crimea; it's not in keeping with a realistic view of the global situation, to put it as mildly as possible.
China's actually conducting what looks like an experiment in that field at the moment at Senkaku. A lot of people think China's trying to claim them for themselves, and in a way they are. However, they know that surrounding the islands with warships weakens their position economically by making them look, well, like Putin. Xi isn't quite that rash, though. China is trying to say that the islands belong to Taiwan, which it claims but doesn't actually claim (they're pulling a long-game of trying to reconnect lost economic ties and re-unify, the latter of which is anathema in Taiwan but the former is very appealing). The tactic currently seems to be to treat the situation the same way, trying to essentially drive Japan off of
Taiwan's land.
And that's how you guarantee a win. At the very least, Japan has to defend its own position on the islands to the world and has to perform some manner of development (as they've started to do). If Taiwan ever gains control of the islands, even closer economic ties benefit them. If they can force a negotiation, they can come out with some kind of personal rights over the island. They might even be able to muscle out a deal. However, key to the approach is to make sure they're seen as being big-stick people without ever using it. Never be more trouble than you're worth; China thrives on industrial exports and forms a very vital link in the world's supply chain.
It's a tough balancing act, but Xi Jingping seems to be pulling it off. China is just threatening enough to make sure everyone notices, but not threatening enough to make everyone worried. Best yet, they use their people as an asset to foreign companies, not governments. By allowing access to their population and the lucrative market they comprise without making that look like something that could vanish over an argument, they've got real-world economic power.
Shame about Turkey, though. Just from an economic perspective and with the changing conditions in the Middle East, the EU could call the hand and win all the money in the pot. Like I said, though, the situation in the Middle East is fluid, to say the least. It's funny to think that the worst problem Putin has on his hands isn't America or the EU, it's the Saudis trying to put the strangle on the same oil companies that are looking to snatch up his business.
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Topic: Is It Time to Assassinate Putin? (Read 13286 times)