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[Makkal]

Presuming you don't know, Russia decided to gobble up part of the Ukraine because it's Russia and it could. Likewise, they deployed Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, a violation of cold war treaties.

The response from NATO was basically warily clenching its sphincter; people objected and there was increased air coverage, but no action was taken to punish Russia. However, US troops did travel to the Baltics and are currently in a number of training exercises with local troops.

Now Russia is making noises at the Baltics, specifically Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This is troubling because those are NATO nations. If Russia invades them, the other NATO nations are obliged to come to the aid of any member who is under armed attack.

That means the US, the UK, France, and Germany going to war with Russia. Some people are suggesting this would be "World War III," but that would only happen if China (or another power) were to ally with Russia, and I don't see that happening. Russia, however, has nukes, and the US has war fatigue. It's also possible that NATO lets the Baltics fall to Russia.

The problem here is Putin. There's every bit of evidence that he sees himself as a strong-willed Ubermench and Western leaders as weak-minded and unable to commit. Propaganda in Russia is strong, and there's evidence that even liberal Russians view NATO as a tool of American imperialism, and would buy into a narrative wherein a fight between Russian and NATO forces is defending Russia from Western aggression.

Putin believes that that NATO won't respond to Russia invading the Baltics, so he's likely to invade the Baltics. If NATO does send troops, he's likely to use tactical nuclear strikes under the assumption that Western (mostly American) forces won't nuke back for fear of escalation. Even if they do, the battlefield is the Baltics. The Russian government doesn't seem to care much for their own people, Latvia becoming a nuclear wasteland is probably fine.

In an exchange where both sides are only using tactical nuclear strikes, Russia continues to have the logistical edge. They could win.

He's a man who's playing chicken with the sincere belief that whomever he's going up against will swerve first, because he's motherfucking Putin and they're not.

I'm not saying we're headed toward MAD. I believe Putin is right in his assessment of the willingness of foreign powers to deploy nukes. If he starts dropping them, the US will spend a decade building up its anti-missile technology before daring to respond. I am saying that I feel for the people in the Baltics because their best case scenario is a bloody conflict, while their worst one is having their cities and people burned to radioactive ash, which is terrifying.

I expect James Bond will see a jump in popularity in the coming decade and the US regress socially.

[Makkal]

I realize that the above post sounds alarmist. A lot of it is speculation based around the attitude and beliefs of a world leader I've never sat down and had tea with.

It's possible that NATO just lets the Baltics fall and issues sanctions. That's pretty much seceding the war. At that point, there's no reason for Russia to give a fuck about the desires of NATO countries, which means an increase in Russian aggression.

It's also possible that Russia lets off a tac-nuke in the Baltics, the American people freak out, and the US military decides to launch a preemptive strike against Russia itself that lays waste to most of its cities, and then has to weather a (weak) secondary strike. We could do so.  On a sociocultural level, the fallout from that would be fascinating.

It's also possible that Putin has a horrible accident, and everyone mourns the passing of a great leader.

There's also China to consider in all this. Their standing policy is 'if someone, anyone, launches nuclear missiles at anyone else, we'll launch ours at them.' Of course, that policy was created some time ago, and modern Chinese military leadership may revisit it. 

[Lyn Farel]

NATO reacting if they attack baltic countries... Like the UK was supposed to defend Ukraine according to the treaty of nuclear demilitarization of Ukraine after the collapse of Warsaw Pact ?

Ok, I may be a bit cynical over that one, and I guess NATO would react in such a case... But well. I am not that confident recently in NATO's ability to back up their interests...

Anyway, those countries are also EU countries, and I highly doubt that Putin would go that far... Well, he is not an idiot, quite the contrary.

I am not sure what suddenly makes you say that Russia is going for baltic countries... ? I know those are extremely scared of the neighbor ogre and probably the most anti Putin voices in the EU currently but well...

There is a difference between shows of force, muscle flexing and everything else at the boundary, and actual invasion... We are not talking about Georgia here...


Edit : also, China and Russia have always hated the guts out of each other (which may be less true now that the Soviet Union has fallen)... Not that it prevents them to cooperate in face of adversity and necessity though.

[Makkal]

NATO reacting if they attack baltic countries... Like the UK was supposed to defend Ukraine according to the treaty of nuclear demilitarization of Ukraine after the collapse of Warsaw Pact ?

Ok, I may be a bit cynical over that one, and I guess NATO would react in such a case... But well. I am not that confident recently in NATO's ability to back up their interests...

They have the ability. The question is whether they have the desire. Letting the Baltics fall to Russia is always an option. It makes NATO look weak though and sends a clear message that countries that aren't the US, the UK, Germany, and France can hang for all the big boys care.

Anyway, those countries are also EU countries, and I highly doubt that Putin would go that far... Well, he is not an idiot, quite the contrary.

He's a smart man. He's relying on NATO to not commit to defending the Baltics the way it would other parts of Europe... and he may be right.

Is France going to rush to the defense of Estonia? If nuclear missiles start flying, France *could* backhand Russia but doing so means sticking oneself in the crosshairs of a counter bombing.

It's not like Russia could take France with a conventional army. Why bother?

Again, I agree Putin is smart. He also considers himself stronger than Western leaders. Why wouldn't he invade the Baltics when he assumes the response will be whining and inaction?

I am not sure what suddenly makes you say that Russia is going for baltic countries... ? I know those are extremely scared of the neighbor ogre and probably the most anti Putin voices in the EU currently but well...

There is a difference between shows of force, muscle flexing and everything else at the boundary, and actual invasion... We are not talking about Georgia here...

Because Russian military leaders are talking about how recognizing their independence was a mistake. Because the Russian military is actively aggressing a neighbor. Because the Russian military is sending tacnukes to Kaliningrad.



From Kaliningrad, the iskanders can hit Lithuania or Poland, and Russia has shown no interest in Poland.

I don’t think Russia is committed. I think Russia is testing to see what the international response to its activities are. Right now, that response is some tongue clicking.

Here's some more from the BBC: Moving ever closer to a new Cold War. Maybe this is all sabre rattling, but remember that sabre rattling can go south fast when it comes to tense military units looking at one another from over a boarder.

Likewise, The Queen of England suddenly felt the need to give a speech about the dangers of a divided Europe. It's almost as though she suddenly wanted to remind other European nations, especially Germany, that it's important to work together to defend oneself. 

Tangent: I had no idea that there was a country called Balarus hanging around Eastern Europe.

[Nicoletta Mithra]

Uh, not to say I like the actions of Putin/Russia, but...

it's not like the 'west' is doing nothing but 'warily clenching its sphincter'. The 'West' is expanding eastwards for quite some time now, basically in violation of cold war treaties as well, hiding behind the 'right' of free countries to choose for themselves - nonewithstanding that the free 'West' would have had the same free choice to stand by the promise to russia not to expand their sphere of influence eastward.

The situation isn't the result of Putin being around. It's simply that for some time now the 'West' felt safe to go against the agreements it had with Russia. Now Russia responds, as the 'West' was about to stand basically on its lawn with working hard to have the Ukraine join the EU.

Russiamight have chosen less 'diplomatic' means in securing its interests than the 'West' has so far, but that doesn't at all mean that this is by now a situation where both sides contribute towards an escalation.

Putin being removed by having 'an accident' certainly won't change that. It won't have a good smell about it, even it it is a bona fide accident.

Peace in Europe is only possible with Russia, never against Russia. What worries me is more the thought that the US might decide that peace in Europe is not necessarily in their interest.

[Vic Van Meter]

I doubt it.  Think back a ways, back before Ukraine's EU membership bid was torpedoed (which is where this whole thing started).  What were the headlines about?  Spying.  People were questioning the role of the United States in the world, why they would spy on their allies and why they would interfere in sovereign business.  Really, the explosion of Europeanist feelings in Ukraine and Russia's imperialist response was a political godsend to the US government.  Flash forward to today, and the latest allegations that the US spied on Brazil and France aren't even headline news.

See, arch-conservative principles (the neocon stuff that exists at the far end of the conservative spectrum) requires a boogeyman.  In the end, Putin needs the West to play that role and the US government needs Putin.  Before all this happened, the US's role wasn't the only thing being questioned in the world, remember that Putin's role as President was being questioned.  He fared worse in the last elections and had to clamp down on native Russian criticism.  This was all very deliberate.  Putin and the US essentially need to operate at a level of war below confrontation but above pacifism so that they don't have to deal with domestic issues.

This happens everywhere.  You'll also likely have noticed that an attempt to engage Iran in peaceful dialogue following their people electing to form closer ties to the Western world (in the form of their election of Rouhani) is presently being torpedoed by congressional Republicans (who offer, as an alternative, tactical bombardment) and Ayatollah Khamenei (who cites sovereignty and their ability to build nuclear weapons as a reason they shouldn't sign a nuclear weapons treaty).  And when that looked like it wasn't enough and the two nations might finally overcome the bitter divide, we got Benjamin Netanyahu flying to the US from Israel to make sure we all know we can't trust Khamenei's conservative Iranian faction.  Domestic issues be damned and peace be ended, because a lot of people need to make sure this tense, belligerent stance is maintained in order to keep political power.

This exists between the US and Cuba, US and China, China and Japan, and in all manner of strange hateful relationships all over the world in a bid to keep us afraid of a foreign force outside our borders.  The Internet is making that far harder to manage.  Nowadays, Americans like me usually have spoken to Russians and Iranians in person; we know these people aren't monsters and vice versa.  That's shined a very harsh lens on domestic issues and a lot of us are starting to question whether or not we're really getting our money's worth for our government and whether these scary foreigners sometimes have good ideas we can use and ideas they can contribute.  Keeping the threat of outside force on the headlines is the only way to keep us from focusing on our own situations and sharing ideas with each other that our governments would consider anathema.

In short, I don't foresee Putin being assassinated.  The people most likely to try are the people who need him most.

[Akrasjel Lanate]

Putin is no different than other leaders of bigger and stronger countries.

It all for real started after the (USA backed/organized) coup on the Ukraine.
Loosing another post soviet "friendly" country to the USA is not good and NATO tightening its grip around Russia.
The new Ukraine establishment wants to privatize its land(Private investors can buy it beginning in January 2016.) and allow GMO.
Open invasion of Ukraine is pointless
Best situation for Russia would be another Maidan

[Vic Van Meter]

Putin is no different than other leaders of bigger and stronger countries.

It all for real started after the (USA backed/organized) coup on the Ukraine.
Loosing another post soviet "friendly" country to the USA is not good and NATO tightening its grip around Russia.
The new Ukraine establishment wants to privatize its land(Private investors can buy it beginning in January 2016.) and allow GMO.
Open invasion of Ukraine is pointless
Best situation for Russia would be another Maidan

Woah, woah, woah.... as an American, I am highly offended by any implication that NATO has actually had any kind of positive geopolitical affect.  If the US was going to start a coup to annoy Putin, they would have helped the Chechens, not the Ukrainians or even Russian mainstream opposition politicians.  We all know that my country doesn't back popular dissent, we arm Muslim caliphates.  We've got a tradition to uphold.

Seriously, though, this all started when Yanukovich torpedoed his own government's EU association agreement.  The Ukrainian protests that followed seemed to be of the mind that Russia was attempting to annex the country again.  Which, not helping matters, Putin helpfully did, partially.

I mean, does anyone else sometimes not want to give these idiots credit?  The problems happening right now are a general clusterfuck, and I'm surprised more people don't realize that it's not the revolution that was the problem, it was our outdated power structure around it trying to cope.  This was all handled so badly that everyone's just trying to make it out of the game having "lost" as little as possible.  And all because, surprise surprise, there was actually a popular revolution in Ukraine.  Look how hard people try to downplay the popular revolution Iran had recently.

Putin's a big problem for his own country.  He's using an old playbook from the Cold War on how you attain and maintain power, one that was pretty thoroughly outflanked by the idea of economic power (that's the one China's made famous).  Grabbing Crimea would have been a big deal  some 20 years ago, but today that's the kind of thing modern powers use as a justification to deal damage to foreign economies and convince their neighbors that they need closer ties to themselves.

Now, the former Warsaw countries are inviting the US to deploy weapons in their nations and Ukraine is having their gas cut off.  Politicians may not be as smart as we think, but there's every possibility a lot of people in two huge American industries are about to make a LOT of money and they'll have Putin, really, to thank.  And we'll all be snide about it, because we figure this is political, we aren't getting our leashes yanked around by real opportunists.

And the world goes around...

[Lyn Farel]

@Makkal: I still think you are overexagerating things a bit... Baltic countries, while right to be scared, are in the EU (and hastened to get in for that same precise reason). It's not a hazard that they chose to do so, and the EU, while still fragile on the military and strategic side, is still an entity. Also, Putin has also taken to threaten Finland, and Sweden in the same move. He may be testing how far he can go, but I believe that his goal is not invasion, but pointing out the fact that Russia is under huge geopolitical pressure as well and literally surrounded by NATO and EU influence.

@Vic: actually this new spy scandal is making the headlines here, as it has done when it was about Germany too. It's maybe not a big things in the US, but in Europe, we talk about it.

@Askrajel: that image with the Joker, as caricature as it may be, conveniently forgets that when Russia invaded Georgia, nobody batted an eye either... It's more a matter of if the targeted country holds right in the interests of one of the big powers or not.

[Quintrala]

If Putin were anything like The Joker, he would be looking at ways to bail out Tsipras and Greece  just for kicks and a naval base in the Med. Not that he has any money.

Anyhow. After looking at how successful regime change has been in Afghanistan, Iraq, Tunis, Libya, Egypt, Somalia and Syria, one can just wonder how assassinating the Leader of a Large Country With Nukes would work. 'Cause the others went that well.

Now if you really want to find out what is going to happen, remember that women rule the world. Victoria Nuland saw the Maidan Revolution coming from a kilometre away  (cynics will say she caused it, hahaha, fools), she predicted the regime would fall and even predicted who was going to be part of  the new government in Kiev and who was not. So forward looking, I wish I could manage coincidence the way she does. But being married to a PNAC neocon like Kagan is more sacrifice than I could take. She still runs the State Department Euro division, by the way.


Now seriously, my guess is that Putin would try and keep things on the slow burner for a long time. He could stir up trouble forever in Ukraine and the Baltics, maybe Venezuela, and try and make it very expensive for the EU and US to get their way.

Just sayin' 

Q

[Karynn]

Dat approval rating though...

89%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/06/24/putins-approval-ratings-hit-89-percent-the-highest-theyve-ever-been/

Probably not a good idea to assassinate one of Russia's most popular leaders of all time. Lots of angry Russians. Lots.

[Vic Van Meter]

@Makkal: I still think you are overexagerating things a bit... Baltic countries, while right to be scared, are in the EU (and hastened to get in for that same precise reason). It's not a hazard that they chose to do so, and the EU, while still fragile on the military and strategic side, is still an entity. Also, Putin has also taken to threaten Finland, and Sweden in the same move. He may be testing how far he can go, but I believe that his goal is not invasion, but pointing out the fact that Russia is under huge geopolitical pressure as well and literally surrounded by NATO and EU influence.
@Vic: actually this new spy scandal is making the headlines here, as it has done when it was about Germany too. It's maybe not a big things in the US, but in Europe, we talk about it.

@Askrajel: that image with the Joker, as caricature as it may be, conveniently forgets that when Russia invaded Georgia, nobody batted an eye either... It's more a matter of if the targeted country holds right in the interests of one of the big powers or not.

I'm just talking about the BBC (I don't actually read much American news here).  The spy scandals just drop off the radar these days.  That did NOT happen pre-ISIS and Ukraine.  And that's crazy, because the idea that the US government was elbows deep in pretty much every government's business on the planet is kind of a big deal.  Now we've got lawmakers here in the States using Ukraine as justification that they were right to spy on our allies, even places that had nothing to do with us.  At the very least, I'm sure the US government can breathe a sigh of relief that Putin has, at best, swept their own issues under the rug and, at worst, justified them.

And that's kind of a problem, because they can kind of access my webcam and I don't need them cataloging what I say over Teamspeak.  I've certainly said things that might make me sound like I think nationalism is a giant lie, more pervasive and insidious than any other cultural identifier we have, and that I think the very idea of different countries turns very real and dangerous ailments to the human condition like war, poverty, and discrimination into political footballs.

But, you know, Putin and all.  Rargh rargh.  Obviously no one in Russia is rolling their eyes at this nonsense as hard as I am because that's what the news tells me.

[Esna Pitoojee]

Dat approval rating though...

89%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/06/24/putins-approval-ratings-hit-89-percent-the-highest-theyve-ever-been/

Probably not a good idea to assassinate one of Russia's most popular leaders of all time. Lots of angry Russians. Lots.

I think this is the biggest reason Putin won't be assassinated by western agents. A sudden decapitation would leave two major scenarios - at best, a power struggle between the nationalists and plutocrats whose position has actually been damaged by sanctions; we have to just pray it doesn't turn into an open civil conflict. At worst, another equally-aggressive nationalist leader rises to take Putin's place... and now knows the west won't hesitate to kill him, too. Neither option is particularly pretty picture.

[Silas Vitalia]

I think the current meta-game is that the US will let Russia fuck with it's satellites to a certain level in exchange for staying out of the way a bit when it comes down to it in a few of the upcoming Middle East reshuffles.  Thus has it -always- been between them trading various satellites and no-go zones.

There's going to be a lot of nebulous double-think upcoming when the US starts teaming up more and more with Iran and gets more away from the Saudis.

And nobody external is ever assassinating the head of a country with that many nuclear weapons, absolutely never, ever, happening. That is suicide for everyone.

But in general the amount of overall world givings a shit about Russia have about 100% to do with the current oil prices.  Prices are in the toilet, the Russian economy is in the toilet because of it, and they are currently getting slammed in international courts for illegally appropriating corporate assets.

The long game of getting away from Russian gas addition by the EU will eventually limit their current fear of pissing off the Russians.  IE Germany, etc won't go past certain lines of sanctions or raising trouble because they currently buy too much fuel from Russia.  Another decade or two of renewable energy development and the Russian blackmail systems gets less effective.

It's not a coincidence that the push the last 15 years to get the US oil independent with internal fracking is going to coincide with us finally telling the Saudis to go to hell.  The same will happen for Europe and Russia.

I also like your observations Vic Van Meter, some good thoughts!

[Vizage]

Inb4 everyone in this thread perishes mysteriously in automobile accidents. :/