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Author Topic: The Scotland Referendum  (Read 17864 times)

Silas Vitalia

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #45 on: 21 May 2014, 21:42 »

 So veering off topic, but what's the latest with the actual thread topic?

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Nmaro Makari

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #46 on: 22 May 2014, 03:10 »

The polls show a mixed story. Earlier, they put the Yes (that is to Imdependence) side at just a few points off the No side, but one about a week later showed them at their lowest for 8 months.

It's the EU Parliament and some Local Council elections today, which may have some additional knock-on effects in the referendum. Particularly so if the Scottish National Party can increase their number of seats, or if a hard right party, the UK Independence Party, tops the polls. Most people seem to duck this issue, but personally, I think a win for UKIP in Europe is likely to reinforce concerns about Scotland being forced to leave the EU as the result of a majoritarian referendum, and also it's problematic because UKIP is still grossly unpopular and vehemently opposed in Scotland, while in England their popularity is only increasing. It is pretty much, despite its name, an English party.

Aside from that, economics continues to be the primary issue, Alex Salmond thinks he can just wave a wand and Scotland will use the Pound post-UK, whereas the Westminster leaders seem to believe England is the sole proprietor of all things Union. Legally it makes sense, Scotland is leaving the UK, which will still exist (at least for a while) without Scotland, buts it also belies an ignorance of what the Union is. It was established, primarily by a Scottish king , as a partnership of equals, and since then it would not be unfair at all to say that two fifths of British history is Scottish history, and the pound has been a shared part of the Union in all that time. While legally within our right to deny them use of the pound, it's politically short-termist, and will be seen as intimidation and scare-mongering by the Westminster establishment in the long term.

There have been some mumblings about defence. Scottish soldiers currently in the British Army are thought to be very un-persuaded by the idea of a Scottish Defence Force, and it's thought that as many as 90% would opt to stay in the British Army given a choice, in a manner similar to Commonwealth or Republic of Ireland soldiers in the army. Oh, and there's the issue of moving the UK's entire nuclear arsenal to a new base. Also, shipbuilding for the Royal Navy will be on quite a few minds.

In terms of big names, the Yes campaign seems to be reeling them in. Actors, writers, musicians, they seem to be going for Yes. The No campaign has found a few English people, Eddie Izzard and David Bowie, but struggles to pull in any Scot with a big name. There have been murmurings that Gordon Brown, former UK Prime Minister and Scottish Unionist, will take a more high-profile role in days to come. While unpopular in England and Wales, he is still respected a great deal in Scotland, and is one of the biggest believers in the Union in any of the UK's states. It might all go tits up still, but it remains to be seen.
« Last Edit: 22 May 2014, 03:40 by Nmaro Makari »
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kalaratiri

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #47 on: 22 May 2014, 09:47 »

It's the EU Parliament and some Local Council elections today, which may have some additional knock-on effects in the referendum. Particularly so if the Scottish National Party can increase their number of seats, or if a hard right party, the UK Independence Party, tops the polls. Most people seem to duck this issue, but personally, I think a win for UKIP in Europe is likely to reinforce concerns about Scotland being forced to leave the EU as the result of a majoritarian referendum, and also it's problematic because UKIP is still grossly unpopular and vehemently opposed in Scotland, while in England their popularity is only increasing. It is pretty much, despite its name, an English party.

Everyone I know hates UKIP with a passion. Then again, I grew up in an area with a very large number of Polish and other European immigrants, so it may just be due to geography. We're all voting Green Party instead :D
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Louella Dougans

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #48 on: 22 May 2014, 11:35 »

There won't be a currency union, should there be a yes vote.

Whenever he is asked about what happens if the other parts of the UK don't want a currency union, and if there is a "plan B", then Salmond always says "we have a plan B, we have a plan c, d, e, f, as well" and that it is all bluff and bluster from the unionist parties.

In recent days, Salmond has said there would be a Scottish "Observer" on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, which amongst other things, sets interest rates. This is a climbdown from previously, when he insisted there would be a Scottish seat on the committee.

In the past, he's said that the 58m people of N.Ireland, Wales and England, "don't have the right to a referendum on a currency union", because it would be "undemocratic", to say to Scotland that there won't be a currency union.

So, with the existence of "plan b,c,d,e,f", then it is clear that at the first point at which the Monetary Policy Committee makes a decision to benefit the 58m people which they are accountable to, and that decision is neutral or detrimental to the 5m people of Scotland, then that is when a currency union falls apart, because Salmond will not take actions necessary for the currency union that are detrimental.

Which shows there is not the commitment necessary to make a currency union work. The senior civil servant to the Treasury said as much, that for a currency union to work, then there has to be an absolute commitment to it, and that this has to be seen to be credible to the outside world.
And "Plan b,c,d,e,f" shows that there is not the commitment, and that the union would not be credible to the outside world.

With only an observer, and thus, no influence on the MPC, this is a worse situation than present, where the MPC takes into account what would benefit all 63m people.

As for not allowing the people of N.Ireland, Wales and England to decide if they want to enter a currency union, then that is ludicrous.

Which means that the idea of a formal currency union is just not going to happen.

Leaving an informal sterling zone, with no regulator of the Scottish banks and other financial institutions, and no guarantor of savers deposits, pensions, and all that.

Joining the Euro means abandoning the whole idea of the distinct Scottish banknotes, and the culture of them, the EU does not allow any member state to have their own designs on the Euro notes or coins.

A Scottish Currency, call it the Groat, the Unicorn, whatever, is a giant "Kick Me" sign to all the financial speculators out there. To have it pegged at a certain exchange rate with the £, is a tempting target to financial speculators, to see how much they can push it before the exchange rate mechanism breaks - we've been there before, many, many times. Look at some other countries of the world, I think one of the SE Asian countries ran into this in the past few years - their exchange rate against the $ was massively changed to their detriment, simply because some currency traders thought they could make lots of money doing this.

So the options for currency in an independent scotland would mean either having no guarantee that your money will still be in the bank tomorrow, having no Scottish cultural identity on the banknotes, or a currency that will be a speculators toy.

Super.


As for defence, those shipyards on the Clyde will not build future RN warships.
It would be cheaper for the UK, to joint-procure ships with the Royal Netherlands Navy, the Bundesmarine, or the French Navy, when the roles for the ships are similar enough. It would be a saving for any of the partner nations as well, by spreading design&development costs across more units.
There is such a thing as "technology transfer", which the SNP don't seem to understand. They point at how Brazil bought some warships from the Clyde yards not so long ago, and say "this is proof of the Clyde yards being able to win export orders". What they don't say, is that Brazil bought something like 4 ships from the Clyde, while having the Clyde yards train some of their workforce, and share knowledge, such that Brazil built, in Brazil, another 8 or so of that class, and will be building the successor class as well.

Warships for export is a dead industry - the only long-term buyers are regimes who have no interest in a domestic shipbuilding industry, which means dictators.

If it was the case that Britain had to purchase some warships from the Clyde, then it would be on a technology transfer basis. There's something like 12 Type 26 frigates planned. Currently the plan would be to procure all 12 from the Clyde yards. In a yes-vote situation, the UK government will do no such thing. They'll order 2 or 3, and have the other 9-10 built in a re-opened shipbuilding yard somewhere else, on a technology transfer basis.

And there is nothing the SNP can do about that. The UK defence procurement decision makers wouldn't be responsible to the people of Scotland. It's that simple.

And yes, the Scottish Defence Forces, which the SNP say will be part of NATO. NATO is a nuclear organisation. Something to note in this instance, was that when POLARIS and later Trident were being procured, the Scottish MPs lobbied intensely, to have those facilities based in Scotland, because of the jobs they entailed.
Anyway, the Trident weapon system, in another interesting note, is not actually the UK's nuclear deterrent. As part of the treaties that resulted in the UK having Polaris and later Trident, then all the nuclear weapons operated by the UK, including other systems such as the now defunct bombs once used by the RAF, are part of NATO's nuclear deterrent, not the UK. The weapons cannot be used independently unless the situation in the UK is extremely dire. They are NATO weapons, and are to be used in support of NATO.
Being part of NATO, but insisting that NATO weapons not be based there, is plain NIMBYism.

As part of the SNP "ethical foreign policy", then "illegal wars" will not be something that Scottish forces would participate in.

Which means sitting idly by, while atrocities are committed, because Salmond's idol Putin uses the UN Security Council veto on any intervention, such as the Kosovo crisis, which Salmond said intervening to stop massacres was "unpardonable folly", because Russia had vetoed UN intervention.

And, when Scottish forces are involved, they will always, in perpetuity, take a junior role. Example would be any naval forces - the most senior Scottish naval officer would likely have no experience of commanding multiple ship formations, which means there will never be a Scottish naval officer in command of a multinational task force.

Amongst other things, the plan is for one fast jet squadron, using Eurofighters, to be based at Lossiemouth iirc.

One squadron means that should any Scottish forces be deployed abroad, as part of a European or other multinational force, then they would be entirely reliant on air support from other nations. Communication difficulties abound in that situation, as do friendly fire incidents, because of misunderstandings and equipment problems.


Actors, writers and musicians opinions are fluff. Millionaire tax exiles who decided that the people of Scotland are beneath them, and do not deserve to benefit from any taxation of their income.


The plan to have independence wrapped up before 2016, is simply to try and get it done before the next election to the Edinburgh parliament, so that the millions allocated for commemorative heroic scale statues of the "First Minister of the New Scotland" are going to be of the "correct person".


So, with the "I'm all right Jack" and NIMBY attitudes, the SNP have become what they claimed to be against, the "Tory Middle England voters".
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Lyn Farel

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #49 on: 22 May 2014, 14:59 »

It's the EU Parliament and some Local Council elections today, which may have some additional knock-on effects in the referendum. Particularly so if the Scottish National Party can increase their number of seats, or if a hard right party, the UK Independence Party, tops the polls. Most people seem to duck this issue, but personally, I think a win for UKIP in Europe is likely to reinforce concerns about Scotland being forced to leave the EU as the result of a majoritarian referendum, and also it's problematic because UKIP is still grossly unpopular and vehemently opposed in Scotland, while in England their popularity is only increasing. It is pretty much, despite its name, an English party.

Everyone I know hates UKIP with a passion. Then again, I grew up in an area with a very large number of Polish and other European immigrants, so it may just be due to geography. We're all voting Green Party instead :D

If only it was the case for me...

They all vote far right and do not give 2 shits about green.  :bash:

Joining the Euro means abandoning the whole idea of the distinct Scottish banknotes, and the culture of them, the EU does not allow any member state to have their own designs on the Euro notes or coins.

What ? I thought most countries had their own designs on their coins and notes in the euro zone...

It would be cheaper for the UK, to joint-procure ships with the Royal Netherlands Navy, the Bundesmarine, or the French Navy, when the roles for the ships are similar enough. It would be a saving for any of the partner nations as well, by spreading design&development costs across more units.

Navy designs are more and more being developed jointly in Europe these days. There is a huge cooperation on joint military developments between the Royal Navy, the French Navy and the Italian Navy these days.

Last frigate designs are done jointly between the too later (where UK had different requirements, true), but the next aicraft carrier is being developed jointly between the RN and the FN despite the reluctance of FN to get an non nuclear aircraft carrier design. The UK being without one currently is by the way currently training and operating jointly on the FN carrier and rafale navy planes until 2020.

While amphibious assault ships are still not being developped together, I wouldn't be surprised to see the next navy big projects to be the case.

Warships for export is a dead industry - the only long-term buyers are regimes who have no interest in a domestic shipbuilding industry, which means dictators.

Well that may be true for dictators (if we can consider Singapore, Taiwan, India, Malaisya or Russia dictatorships...), but that's maybe one of the most prolific military industry for France atm. DCNS is doing rather well on that side.
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Louella Dougans

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #50 on: 24 May 2014, 05:08 »

There's a national side to some of the Euro large coins, but all the Euro notes are the same designs.

for purchasing warships, I meant in like, 20-30 years or so. Few countries buy new-build warships over that period of time without developing their own shipbuilding industry. India for example - when they have their own space program and nuclear weapons, then it is only a matter of time when they stop buying warships from foreign suppliers completely.
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Lyn Farel

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #51 on: 24 May 2014, 08:33 »

Maybe yes, but I think you may be overly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on the point of view) concerning the ability of countries to suddenly be able to produce their own piece of technology. It mostly boils down to what they intend to invest and how much into that specific field of research, like they probably already do in their space program. And even with that investment, it takes time to catch up with all the years they lack in said technology (if they even have any to begin with...).

If only a few countries have an edge on strategic technologies like these, it's also because all the other ones deeply lack the knowledge, and more importantly, the required practical expertise needed to do something. And that no matter how much you spend, takes decades or centuries to build up.

So maybe they will indeed be able to build their own warships in 20-30 years, from subs to aircraft carriers, it all depends on what they intend to invest in terms of researchers, designers, doctrines, and industrial capacity to that goal.

Unless you plan to be a blue water superpower of some kind, I don't think it is really in any country's interest to invest such colossal means into building their own military stuff...
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Nmaro Makari

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #52 on: 24 May 2014, 13:14 »

Definitely yes. When it comes to defence, consistently it's shown that the only reason to totally outsource any major item is that using the domestic industry is unlikely to produce anything of the same quantity/quality without astronomical additional costs.

Just look at it logically, in shipbuilding for instance why would India favor foreign contracts when using a growing domestic industry a) provides employment for Indians b) allows more design freedom and tailoring for their needs c) reduces reliance on foreign labor and expertise, and earns expertise for its own shipbuilders.

They won't suddenly become "Made In India" only overnight, all nations, even the the US, outsources some items. But relying on the foreign market pretty much alone, to keep open a Shipyard like the one on the Clyde, which is currently building the largest and most complex warship in Royal Navy, is totally a non starter. The Chinese only managed to purchase a vessel of equivalent size because the Russians happened to have a spare.
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Lyn Farel

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #53 on: 25 May 2014, 03:05 »

Maybe for India though, I don't know, they may still be a potential future superpower after all.

You mean that the shipyard in Clyde would not be of interest anymore for an independent Scotland without the RN since they would not have the domestic fleet to build for if I understand right ?
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Nmaro Makari

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #54 on: 25 May 2014, 06:14 »

Maybe for India though, I don't know, they may still be a potential future superpower after all.

You mean that the shipyard in Clyde would not be of interest anymore for an independent Scotland without the RN since they would not have the domestic fleet to build for if I understand right ?

Well in short, a UK without Scotland is likely to want to use Portsmouth, which although recently hit by budget cuts has a naval history, capable shipyards manned by experienced people, and is also the home of the majority of the Surface Fleet, including the two supercarriers after their construction.

So this affects Clyde in that yes, the Scottish Navy would not yield the business that they would need to keep the shipyards open as they are. There is the possibility of switching to civilian manufacture, but this is widely seen as a step down, into a field with already very well established competitors.

Specifically addressing "Europeanised" procurement, that, theoretically at least, I must concede does offer Scotland a lifeline in this regard, however there are some fixed obstacles here. The most important one to remember is that EU membership will not be instantaneous or easy, in fact it's likely to be the opposite, even if fast-tracked. This will impede business, but given determination can be overcome. But it also must be said that while vital components may continue to be manufactured in Scotland, it's a fair bet that the biggest customers, UK, France, Germany, Poland, will want to do the actual shipbuilding in  their own shipyards.

I would like to amend my original position though, and change it from "It can't happen" to "I wouldn't risk it". It's a dice roll, not total suicide but a risky dice roll with a lot in the balance. In all other areas, I think in all honesty, Scotland would be the big winner and the UK the loser in the event of independence, but it must be remembered that things will not be business as usual on either side after this.
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Nmaro Makari

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #55 on: 31 Jul 2014, 04:32 »

Thread bump

Any new thoughts/news?
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Odelya

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #56 on: 31 Jul 2014, 05:21 »

As a complete outsider, I observe the situation with great interest. My most pressing question is: Does Scotland really want to give up this?
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Silas Vitalia

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #57 on: 31 Jul 2014, 08:21 »

Could one of you good United Kingdom members assist in describing the relationship to us out of EU folks?

I'm looking for an appropriate analogy as to the sort of connection or bond you feel with Scotland if say you are living in England.   

Is it like someone in California and another person in Texas, where they both have very different lifestyles but are part of the same larger national framework?

Or is it more like someone in the US and then someone in Puerto Rico where it's basically an entirely different country and social organization but part of the same overall group on paper?

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kalaratiri

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #58 on: 31 Jul 2014, 08:44 »

England, Scotland and Wales as far as the actual "living there" goes may as well be one country already. I live in England and visit both Scotland and Wales at least once a year, and it's almost impossible to tell when you've changed from one country to the next (apart from the sign posting [stupid Welsh language]).

In terms of the attitudes of the people living in each country, it seems to me to be a sort of 'love to hate' type relationship. The Scottish grouch about the English, the Welsh grouch about the English and the English grouch about everyone, but there doesn't seem to be too much actual dislike involved.

Relevant image



Then again, I am some kind of international mutant, (born in England to the Kiwi son of a Glaswegian), so nationalism and patriotism is something I'm almost completely unaware of.
« Last Edit: 31 Jul 2014, 08:46 by kalaratiri »
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Louella Dougans

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Re: The Scotland Referendum
« Reply #59 on: 31 Jul 2014, 10:58 »

Any new thoughts/news?

the European elections and the new European commission show the futility of independence, and also, the danger to the whole of the EU.

With an integrationist at the head of the EU, then defence and foreign policy will be increasingly decided by Brussels, and by the European Parliament. Scotland has 6 MEPs, out of 750. And Scotland will in future, have 5 MEPs out of 750, due to population growths in other countries. Scotland used to have 8 MEPs.

So, what would be the point of gaining control of foreign policy, only to surrender it entirely ?

The danger to the EU, can be seen in places like Italy. There is a great difference between Northern and Southern Italy. Southern Italy has big problems with organised crime (the Mafia and Albanian gangs), and huge numbers of immigrants arriving from N.Africa on boats.

Northern Italian regions, such as Milan, there are some politicians who want to secede from Italy, because they resent their taxes being spent in Southern Italy. If Scotland gets entry to the EU, then that would give those politicians some impetus. And if the prosperous northern Italian regions secede, leaving Southern Italy to cope with all the problems, then there is the prospect of S.Italy turning into A Failed State, collapsing under the weight of organised crime and unmanageable numbers of immigrants. And that would be a disaster for all of the EU.

70 years of peace in Europe would be put at risk. And Italy isn't the only place where that could happen. Catalonia and Spain is another area of concern - resent by Catalans at their taxes paying for things in Madrid and so on.

Even if such dire events do not come to pass, Scotland being independent sets back social progress greatly, in the forms of university education. Scotland has no motor industry. If a Scottish engineering student wishes a career in the automotive industry, they have to leave Scotland. Placing a passport barrier obstructs that. Instead of being able to apply for automotive jobs across the UK, they'll now need to have work permits. This wouldn't be an isolated thing. Independence closes off options for Scottish people to find employment and education outside of Scotland, and is particularly damaging to people from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds. When the London Olympics were being prepared for, there were thousands of construction jobs. Those would be closed to Scottish tradespeople, because of work permits and immigration issues.

The rise of the right wing across Europe, as shown by the EU elections, is a cause for concern. More prosperous regions, such as Lombardy, want to leave the poorer regions to their own devices, setting back social progress across all of Europe, and raising the prospect of yet another European civil war. Fan-tas-tic. :|
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