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[Katrina Oniseki]

Cut connections add lowsec regions between current trade hubs?

How would this affect material prices? I'm no economist, but it seems to me that module and ship prices will only go up, at a time when people are complaining about inflation.

EDIT. I am so not an economist, that I don't even know if this is good or bad. xD

[Victoria Stecker]

Cut connections add lowsec regions between current trade hubs?

How would this affect material prices? I'm no economist, but it seems to me that module and ship prices will only go up, at a time when people are complaining about inflation.

EDIT. I am so not an economist, that I don't even know if this is good or bad. xD

More likely it will spread things out. For example, the reduced access to Jita will cause prices in Jita to drop, meanwhile they'll rise in Amarr. This will lead to more people moving goods from Jita to amarr until the prices get closer together. Amarr will likely remain a little more expensive because so much of the manufacturing capacity is set up to serve Jita, but this too will move over time.

In the end, overall prices shouldn't change much. You should see greater differences in price between the trade hubs based on local supply and demand, which in turn will create opportunities for players to carry goods from one hub to another for profit.

[Silver Night]

It would alter prices, certainly. There are some minerals, for example, that are only readily available in certain empires.

[Katrina Oniseki]

Cut connections add lowsec regions between current trade hubs?

How would this affect material prices? I'm no economist, but it seems to me that module and ship prices will only go up, at a time when people are complaining about inflation.

EDIT. I am so not an economist, that I don't even know if this is good or bad. xD

More likely it will spread things out. For example, the reduced access to Jita will cause prices in Jita to drop, meanwhile they'll rise in Amarr. This will lead to more people moving goods from Jita to amarr until the prices get closer together. Amarr will likely remain a little more expensive because so much of the manufacturing capacity is set up to serve Jita, but this too will move over time.

In the end, overall prices shouldn't change much. You should see greater differences in price between the trade hubs based on local supply and demand, which in turn will create opportunities for players to carry goods from one hub to another for profit.

Either you're vastly overestimating how much hauling will be done between Amarr and Jita, or I'm vastly underestimating. If the highways had lowsec systems slapped in the middle of them, those lowsec systems would be camped 23.5/7 I doubt even blockade runners and frigates could get through, with smartbombing and HICs more than likely.

Also, for many goods, Jita prices are already low, while Amarr prices are often higher. Higher prices in Amarr isn't a good thing.

[Gaven Lok ri]

Things would balance out, but not so much because of hauling. Hauling is is how it works now, it wouldn't work in an entirely de-highwayed empire space.

If you isolate the hubs from eachother, things end up balancing out because production will balance out.

Basically, if Amarr prices are higher because its demand goes way up. If they could no longer ship things from Jita, then they will need to make it locally.

Higher prices will result, temporarily, because there will be more demand. But higher prices mean that selling basic manufacturing in Amarr becomes more profitable. Once people see that profit, they start filling the holes and prices stabilize and lower. I think the infrastructure is already pretty developed for this, to be honest, and so prices would probably drop fairly quickly in Amarr as soon as Jita became nonviable for Amarrian based manufacturing.

What I am really wondering is whether secondary market hubs will appear in empire space regions.

On another note, I wonder if ISK is the pricetag to watch for inflation rather than ore. The current price increases that people are noticing seem to be almost entirely because of the increase in the price of ore. Ore intensive items are the ones that have seen a major increase in price from what I remember from before the break. What this means is that the value of an isk hasn't dropped but rather the value of a commodity has increased, so not really inflation as I understand it.

[orange]

On another note, I wonder if ISK is the pricetag to watch for inflation rather than ore. The current price increases that people are noticing seem to be almost entirely because of the increase in the price of ore. Ore intensive items are the ones that have seen a major increase in price from what I remember from before the break. What this means is that the value of an isk hasn't dropped but rather the value of a commodity has increased, so not really inflation as I understand it.

Note: Ore is currently messed up due to hording in preparation for the changes coming with Odyssey.  The low-sec ores are selling for up to an order of magnitude more than there future mineral value.

[Arnulf Ogunkoya]

Either you're vastly overestimating how much hauling will be done between Amarr and Jita, or I'm vastly underestimating. If the highways had lowsec systems slapped in the middle of them, those lowsec systems would be camped 23.5/7 I doubt even blockade runners and frigates could get through, with smartbombing and HICs more than likely.

Also, for many goods, Jita prices are already low, while Amarr prices are often higher. Higher prices in Amarr isn't a good thing.

If people have to move cargo through low sec pipes. And if those pipes do wind up being heavily camped in a Amamake style.

Might there be an opening for a mercenary or anti pirate group to specialise in patrolling the gateway systems and the rest of the pipe and murdering anyone who tries to gatecamp it? Possibly made viable by an CONCORD payout for killing a criminal flagged pilot in those specific systems? Then have the pirate factions offer rewards for confirmed kills in the pipe to make life really interesting.

[Louella Dougans]

The Cost of ensuring a freighter or industrial gets through, gets added to the price of the goods.

There are dozens of freighters going to/from Amarr-Jita, every hour.

When you consider that to avoid suicide attack in the highsec systems on the route, a freighter carries <2 Bn of stuff, then paying mercenaries to ensure that freighter gets through, gets hugely expensive as a proportion of the value of the cargo.

Even more so for an industrial. Industrials carry <2M of stuff to avoid suicide attack. It's not economic to pay someone to escort those. So they won't go.

There'd be a big monopolisation of trade, with only a few groups moving stuff around, and all the independent little traders will just disappear.

[Saana]

Hauling would either take more time (going around via GalFed, Republic and Mandate) or then be more expensive (jump freighter).

Looking at jump ranges from the current trade hubs, a jump freighter undocking from the Emperor Family Academy in Amarr can directly jump into a hisec gate in Sinq Laison (one of those is Egghelende though), Essence and Heimatar (uh, one of the Heimatar destinations is Amamake). From Dodixie, you can reach Domain, The Citadel and Heimatar (Amamake again, but two others, too). Jita has Sinq Laison, Essence, Metropolis and Heimatar (only Eifer) in jump range. Rens has Sinq Laison, the Forge (Maila and Akora) and Domain (only Mai) within jump range.

We can expect that potential amount of links via jump freighter would significanly increase if we allow hisec travel on both ends of the trip and/or a midpoint. Travel from Amarr to the State isn't a problem, but traveling from the State to Amarr would probably require jumping to Naguton.

[Makkal]

If people have to move cargo through low sec pipes. And if those pipes do wind up being heavily camped in a Amamake style.

Might there be an opening for a mercenary or anti pirate group to specialise in patrolling the gateway systems and the rest of the pipe and murdering anyone who tries to gatecamp it? Possibly made viable by an CONCORD payout for killing a criminal flagged pilot in those specific systems? Then have the pirate factions offer rewards for confirmed kills in the pipe to make life really interesting.

That wouldn't help. The problem is a statistical one.

When I started hauling, I sat down and found the average amount of money I could make on a haul and compared it to the average amount of collateral I'd have to put up. I'd have to successfully deliver cargo 100 - 300 times to cover a single cargo loss.

This is for your Bestowers and such. I have no idea what numbers look like at freighter level.

All it takes is a single bad run to set you months back.

Mining veldspar makes me more money than hauling through low-sec. I could have a fit retriever blown up 20 times and I'd still have more money than losing 1 cargo package.

[Esna Pitoojee]

Quite. I've come to the conclusion that Red Frog, Push Industries, and such are universally run by people operating a huge number of alts; an Amarr-Jita run from them will cost you 4.5 million, for an entire freighter load (860k m3) and a 1b collateral. For a job that will likely take on the order of ~20 minutes at least, 4.5 million is frankly not a lot of money to gain - and an aweful lot to loose if by some chance you get that frieghter-load ganked on the way there.

[Silver Night]

[mod]Split the topic, since this seems to have evolved into its own discussion.[/mod]

/mod hat

Actually, there used to be a lot more of an obstacle between empires. Before the highways, traveling between 'enemy' empires (Amarr-Minmatar or Gallente-Caldari) was either long with low sec included (something on the order of 30 jumps, if I recall), or extremely long without low sec (something like 60 jumps). This was before the early iterations of the 'highway' system they have now. There is a somewhat simlar situation now, in some places, where there is a short low sec route and a longer high sec route. I think exaggerating the difference a little more might be interesting. Eliminating the high sec routes all together would also be 'interesting'. 

[orange]

Quite. I've come to the conclusion that Red Frog, Push Industries, and such are universally run by people operating a huge number of alts; an Amarr-Jita run from them will cost you 4.5 million, for an entire freighter load (860k m3) and a 1b collateral. For a job that will likely take on the order of ~20 minutes at least, 4.5 million is frankly not a lot of money to gain - and an aweful lot to loose if by some chance you get that frieghter-load ganked on the way there.

Jita-Amarr is 5.5 million the flat fee. (Calculator Link)

A battleship (or a Marauder) is only 50k m3 and then assume you add on all the other stuff in the package - call it 51k m3.  This does not seem unreasonable to assume for the average freight service user.*   This means that the 16-17 customers might be on a single trip, so even low-balling down to 10 customers you end up with 55 million.

*Once someone is in the business of moving large numbers of battleships between Jita/Amarr, they are unlikely to need a freight service as they will likely have their own freighter.


Perhaps more importantly from my perspective, for T1 products there is little to no need to move things between the major hubs.  A single blueprint trip around the cluster should suffice for most needs and then local mineral sources can actually be cheaper than Jita.

In my opinion, T2 is the area more aggressively impacted by the use of Jita as a hub by the null-sec empires.  We can see this by looking at the market for moon materials in the non-Jita hubs.

[Ulphus]

Jita-Amarr is 5.5 million the flat fee. (Calculator Link)

A battleship (or a Marauder) is only 50k m3 and then assume you add on all the other stuff in the package - call it 51k m3.  This does not seem unreasonable to assume for the average freight service user.*   This means that the 16-17 customers might be on a single trip, so even low-balling down to 10 customers you end up with 55 million.

I thought their stated reason for having a maximum escrow of 1 billion was that more than one billion in a freighter made it a suicide gank target, and that was bad for business. Putting 16-17 customers cargo in one load seems to be contra-indicated if that is the case.

[Makkal]

Yes. And that's high-sec. Much of the hauler ganking there happens for economic reasons that are balanced by ship loss.

In low-sec, if you can tank the gate guns, is there a reason not to attack every, single hauling ship you can?