Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Nmaro Makari]

Yeah, its increasingly looking like its moved into successful revolution territory.

Next question is what is the status of the 20th Guards Army and 1st Air and Air Defense Command.   I am really curious what the Western Military Districts units are currently doing.

To be honest I'm more anxious about the Black Sea Fleet and the Crimea in general.

[Katrina Oniseki]

Why? Someone explain why the worry?

[orange]

Why? Someone explain why the worry?

The Crimea is a predominantly Russian area of the Ukraine that juts into the Black Sea. The Russian Black Sea fleet are based in Crimea, ie Russian military forces already operating in Ukraine.

In general, my concerns stem from the possibility of Russia using military might be used to "protect ethnic Russians from persecution in an unstable Ukraine."  I am using quotes because that is the kind of excuse that could be used to justify Russian military intervention in the Ukraine.

Fundamentally, Russia would prefer the countries on its immediate borders were aligned more closer with its interest than those of the EU (and by military association with NATO and the US).

[Lyn Farel]

Crimean War II 

[Nmaro Makari]

What orange said.

Similar situations have happened before, the most notable and recent example being Georgia, which erupted in a brief war over ethnic Russians in South Ossetia. Essentially the story goes South Ossetia was a largely unrecognised political entity within Georgia, ethnically and culturally Russian. Georgia tries to put an end to it as a political entity, Russia invades Georgia to protect the Russian population.

It does bear mentioning of course, that in that example Georgia was less than discriminate when it came to collateral damage, and was the primary aggressor by any reasonable metric.

Edit: Regarding the Crimea, Russia is very, very keen to hold onto it as a strategic base whatever happens, it's both strategically and culturally significant to them. There was a minor diplomatic crisis when Ukraine last tried to raise the rent on the Sevastopol naval base.

Which is why when Obama says Ukraine isn't a piece on a chessboard, one can't help but be sceptical.

[Gaven Lok ri]

When Obama says that he is in fact making a play for it to be *his* piece on the chessboard. I doubt the US would go along with that, though.

[Vic Van Meter]

When Obama says that he is in fact making a play for it to be *his* piece on the chessboard. I doubt the US would go along with that, though.

Doesn't seem like he'd have to try too hard.  If Ukraine becomes closer to, or part of, the E.U., he doesn't need to plant a flag in it.  The E.U. may not particularly like the U.S. government right now, but it seems they prefer us to Putin.  Not for lack of trying; it's just a lot harder for us to screw the E.U. from so far away.  Not a level playing field.

[orange]

Troop movements - exercises near Ukraine.

[Gaven Lok ri]

Will be interesting/worrying to see how EU and US play this game.

[Vic Van Meter]

Will be interesting/worrying to see how EU and US play this game.

It remains to be seen how hard Putin wants to press the issue.  The U.S. didn't want to step into the Georgia situation because they were sort of the aggressors in that conflict, but Ukraine is a NATO member in the midst of revolution towards European rather than Russian politics and diplomacy.  I imagine there's a 2nd Fleet carrier group on the way to the Baltic if it's not there already, or if it's out of the operating range of the 6th Fleet.

[Lyn Farel]

Apparently Crimea is slowly turning into a blockaded state by non official, pro russian militias, filtering entry points. Conflicts between both sides seem to arise in various places in the region.

[orange]

Ukraine is a NATO member

Nope.

It has been on (and off) the path to membership.  They previously could have joined, if the decide to, and meet the criteria to do so.  Which leads to a weird situation of having the Russian Navy having a base in a NATO country...

Apparently Crimea is slowly turning into a blockaded state by non official, pro russian militias, filtering entry points. Conflicts between both sides seem to arise in various places in the region.

Crimea's majority is ethnic Russian.

I imagine there's a 2nd Fleet carrier group on the way to the Baltic if it's not there already, or if it's out of the operating range of the 6th Fleet.

A ship leaving the west Atlantic (2nd Fleet) for east Atlantic/European seas falls under 6th Fleet's control.  The CVN-77 appears to be at sea, with it air wing and destroyers, for a pre-deployment exercise.  Since it is based out of Norfolk and the other three deployed ships appear to be in the Gulf (CVN-75), Pacific (CVN-68), or Korea (CVN-73), it may be setting a course for the Baltic.

On the other hand, the US Air Force out of RAF Lakenheath UK (F-15Cs and F-15Es), RAF Mildenhall UK (KC-135s), Spangdahlem AB Germany (F-16s) can likely be there sooner.  These can be backed up in short-order by F-22s from Langley AFB, VA and B-2s out of Scott AFB, MO.  This does not include the forces of the other NATO partners.

Carriers make a nice visual.  But if it escalates, the unclassified range of an F-22 is sufficient it can hit a tanker over Poland and make the round trip flight over Moscow.  B-2s can conduct the fly over from Missouri and then land in Germany or hit a tanker over the North Atlantic and fly back home.  (Wikipedia and Google Earth)

[Lyn Farel]

Apparently Crimea is slowly turning into a blockaded state by non official, pro russian militias, filtering entry points. Conflicts between both sides seem to arise in various places in the region.

Crimea's majority is ethnic Russian.

Yes, exactly.

[Nmaro Makari]

Eep

[Aldrith Shutaq]

So apparently Russia is invading eastern Ukraine and the Crimea with unmarked troops and denying involvement.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/ukraine-accuses-russia-of-taking-over-airports-live-updates

Russian helicopters apparantly heading to the airport in the article above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TVyPiHVZ1A&feature=youtu.be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYFh2lABg48

A few pictures from the ground:

http://imgur.com/gallery/auUeG