Fed has the upper hand, but it is looking to stabilise into 'just shy of equal' footing in the next two weeks. Damar I havent seen hide nor hair of, and Bad Messenger is still trying to sap morale with his 'what's the use, we cant get rich easily' speeches - kinda missing that many of us are here to pvp AND flip systems, not just circle buttons all day long.
basically put, Caldari 'gave it a go' to flip the warzone, but Shadows/Tundragon had titans out (no complaining, good tactic for area denial), so we were forced to take circuitous routes, face off against several well organised Fed fleets, and deal with the majority of our 'part time pvp' farmers crying into their pillows over not getting free isk any more. I think all of the warzones are suffering a bit of the latter, so it is a good sign that the anti-farmer element of this patch has worked, at least for now.
I expect a little bit of stagnation while all sides reconfigure to make the most of the new system, especially when one side holds enough systems to tier 3 or 4 and make defensive plexing even more worthwhile.