In terms of dodging nullsec pilots:
Cartel is probably the easiest to slip in to initially for the simple fact that their null is the only pirate null to have a direct jump to empire space. It's often camped, of course, but you can still slip in to it at odd hours.
Blooders are probably a bad choice right now, due to the whole Delve campaign.
Guristas I'm unsure of, though I've heard Venal is currently full of roaming gangs right now as well.
Serps I think are safe-ish - you need to travel through a bit of player null to get there, but neither player or NPC null are playing host to a huge fight at the moment.
Nation has a bit of a boon by merit of having a whole region to choose from, hugely widening your options if someone else moves into your first system of pick. Of course, you still have to fly through player null to get there...
In terms of RP considerations, my only thought is that you need to be careful when toying with Blooder or Nation characters, as those tend to ellicit the strongest responses from people right off the bat.