That matches my understanding pretty closely, Bloodbird, one caveat being whether an erratic demented capsuleer long past the point of feeling much genuine loyalty to any given group is worth trying to stop from taking herself out of upper-division play (so to speak). But yeah, that's likely to be one of the obstacles in most cases.
Not an insurmountable one, necessarily, however. Aria (as an example) had extremely strong ties to certain State entities, including both the navy and the CPF. This, to my mind, along with a goodly pile of loyalty points, translates into a fair few favors owed.