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[Benjamin Shepherd]

You've all heard this at one point during a random search on the forums: "What will I do after EVE Online cannot be supported anymore?" Or, more realistically: "eve sucks lol fuk this patch im going to wow bai". I don't want this thread to be a bunch of conflicting predictions of when EVE will cease to exist, but instead act as a discussion on what could be achieved in the near and far off future for the MMO, from an economic, technical, and social view.

Some of my questions regarding the future of this game, and the eventual end are this:

• What technologies will exist one year from now; five years from now? How will these influence EVE Online?
• Will there be a subscription time period that will result in less subscribers, as opposed to more?
• What will the gaming culture be like, with more and more use of cloud computing and consoles retaining their value long after they first went on the market?
• Will the technologies that CCP Games has utilized in EVE Online transfer to any other future MMO? (single-shard technology, memory usage, dynamic gameplay)

Discuss.

[Jozana]

Or, more realistically: "eve sucks lol fuk this patch im going to wow bai".

I lol'd IRL.

• What technologies will exist one year from now; five years from now? How will these influence EVE Online?

I do not believe at all that the technological advancement over the coming few years is going to have a massive noticable impact. There will always be small enhancements becoming available and being applied, but mostly transparent. Most of the aspects you're talking about when you're looking at the majority of more substantial improvements are good for new games, but not nearly as much for existing games. If we're looking at for instance graphics, getting the absolute most out of new developments (and I'm not talking about a new version of DX - whoop whoop) would require rewriting large portions of the game engine.

• Will Iceland's volcanos combine to form a supervolcano that ultimately destroys every living thing on the island? of course not.

I wouldn't quite say of course not., but I would agree it's very unlikely seeing as it was really only a miscommunication to begin with.
Our government (the dutch government, that is) asked for cash - we never really asked for ash.

• What will the gaming culture be like, with more and more use of cloud computing and consoles retaining their value long after they first went on the market?

Cloud computing in regards to gaming is a very slippery surface which I'm not going to risk my words on at this point.

As for consoles I believe they will always be no more and no less what they are now and that is a budget solution.
People can say all they want about there being more difference between PCs and consoles like the controls and the much more truly PnP sort of experience, but in the end if you really have enough money to invest in a PC it will always be better. Don't get me wrong, I will not deny at all that any of the consoles aren't great products in that they are indeed great solutions looking at price vs. quality, but if price doesn't matter the PC is still the way to go and I really dont believe that is going to change.
Add to that the fact that consoles are being developed and improved largely using hardware (in some cases modified) designed for PCs and you'll realize that one day one of our brilliant friends over at, say, Sony will put the finishing touch to his latest and greatest Playstation, he'll put it down on the table, take a step back, enjoy the sight for about 5 minutes and then raise his eyebrow and go: "Houston, we have a problem - or rather, a PC.".


Edit: I forgot this was actually about the complete vision on EVE and I'm guessing what I just responded to were just a few examples of what questions you could come up with on the subject. In conclusion: I have absolutely no clue really.

[Benjamin Shepherd]

I agree with most of what you are saying, however PCs may be dropping in price. Look how fast graphics cards go down in price only half a year after they're released, TB hard drives that used to cost huge amounts now can be purchased easily. Moore's law is coming true, and it'll be reflected in the price of PCs in five years.

[Lillith Blackheart]

Moore's law is coming true, and it'll be reflected in the price of PCs in five years

"Coming true"? Moore's law has been true for 40 years, it's rapidly approaching its endpoint as it is starting to become more expensive to pack more transistors in, which is why they're starting to shift focus from smaller and smaller transistors to more efficient computing. Which is right on time, really, as Moore's Law was laid out expecting to hit its top point at 2015.

Also HDDs and such have little relevance to Moore's Law, it only deals with transistors one CPUs.

[orange]

• Will the technologies that CCP Games has utilized in EVE Online transfer to any other future MMO? (single-shard technology, memory usage, dynamic gameplay)

So, I think a lot of this depends on the success of the DUST 514 and Eve-Online integration.

I was talking to one of my corpmates a week ago, and he mentioned that PI could be an interesting mobile-device game/app, integrated into the larger Eve-Online world.

The "Big Idea" with this could be something directly related to the single-shard/world concept.  A collection/series of games spread across platforms and game-styles that all interact on the "back-end."*

So, if the D514 & EO integration works and more integration follows, it could lead other developers down a similar path.  I think this could pay dividends and build more immersive brands and games.

[Mizhara]

What I'm far more interested in is how Eve's philosophy of handing so much power to players will affect MMOs and games of the future. I mean, look at nullsec and alliance building in general. Politics. Actual logistics, landholding/spaceholding, diplomacy, warfare and community building through relatively simple game-mechanics (which could use tune-ups, but hey, nothing's perfect) and so on... Combined with the financial aspect, free markets (and don't get me started on regional separations and so on) and more.

These things are unique to Eve, and completely mindboggling in it's complexity and depth. The freedom in training, in choices to make, in paths taken to achieve goals... and not having the developer hold your hand by setting in a hundred safeguards to prevent your stupidity from fucking you over.

These are things that Eve Online not only provides in the game, but encourages and uses as a main theme. Will this affect other MMOs? Will it affect the gaming industry? In 20 years, will it be seen as an aberration or as something groundbreaking MMO wise?

I don't know... but I know it's something I consider to be CCP's greatest achievement. Setting it up, and actually making it work.

Edit:

And Industry... I mean come on. Almost everything in the game being player generated is bloody insane. Name one game that does all these things, please.

[Benjamin Shepherd]

What I'm far more interested in is how Eve's philosophy of handing so much power to players will affect MMOs and games of the future. I mean, look at nullsec and alliance building in general. Politics. Actual logistics, landholding/spaceholding, diplomacy, warfare and community building through relatively simple game-mechanics (which could use tune-ups, but hey, nothing's perfect) and so on... Combined with the financial aspect, free markets (and don't get me started on regional separations and so on) and more.

These things are unique to Eve, and completely mindboggling in it's complexity and depth. The freedom in training, in choices to make, in paths taken to achieve goals... and not having the developer hold your hand by setting in a hundred safeguards to prevent your stupidity from fucking you over.

These are things that Eve Online not only provides in the game, but encourages and uses as a main theme. Will this affect other MMOs? Will it affect the gaming industry? In 20 years, will it be seen as an aberration or as something groundbreaking MMO wise?

I don't know... but I know it's something I consider to be CCP's greatest achievement. Setting it up, and actually making it work.

Edit:

And Industry... I mean come on. Almost everything in the game being player generated is bloody insane. Name one game that does all these things, please.

This is exactly what I'd like to see in future MMOs. Who knows, in twenty years maybe we'll be able to go into virtual reality a la the Matrix and be super pilots with wealth and power, then come out of the game and continue to live as losers.

[Jozana]

Look how fast graphics cards go down in price only half a year after they're released, TB hard drives that used to cost huge amounts now can be purchased easily.

This has always been the case though.

Moore's law is coming true, and it'll be reflected in the price of PCs in five years.

Moore made a public statement about this several years ago saying his the most significant pillar of his law had already come true. This was the event he predicted would break the lineair line of performance progression in CPUs due to upscaling of clock speed mostly.
The turn point for this where he took distance and said he could no longer predict further developments was when the transistors hit 40nm causing trouble to further increase the amount of transistors in the CPUs. This was when the massive shift to multi-core CPUs really started to kick in.

[Wanoah]

I fully expect EVE to continue to have precisely zero influence on other MMOs. Publishers will endlessly chase ever-diminishing returns from their tedious WoW clones, just as they have done for the last 5 years. Of course, it would be fucking marvellous if others took a leaf or two out of CCP's book, but it hasn't happened yet and I see little reason for optimism. I shall continue to keep one jaded eye open for people willing to prove me wrong, but I think there was a time for EVE and there was a time for the perfect MMO for me, and that time is gone. Chasing another experience to match it is likely to end in perennial disappointment.

Time will tell, but I tend to see Eve as the MMO equivalent of Deus Ex: a groundbreaking herald of a brave new gaming paradigm that never actually materialised, while we wallow in a creative slough of dumb games for sofa-dwellers with only thumbs and we marvel at how pretty it all is.

[Lillith Blackheart]

Actually there's pretty much one thing that MMOs are taking from EVE and trying to replicate:

Single-shard persistent world.

[Benjamin Shepherd]

Actually there's pretty much one thing that MMOs are taking from EVE and trying to replicate:

Single-shard persistent world.

I'll be fine with that, even if it was as lame as unicorn races.

[Silver Night]

I have trouble taking MMOs seriously that don't use a single shard.

[Wanoah]

I have trouble taking MMOs seriously that don't use a single shard.

Yeah. That is a game-breaker for me. As is PvE only (just make it single-player FFS!). I'm too hooked on the good stuff to let go now.

[Lillith Blackheart]

I'm just going to point out EVE was the turning point on that one, now a lot of newer MMOs are trying (with varying degree of success) to replicate it. It has advantages and disadvantages, both from the end user perspective and the developer perspective.

[Wanoah]

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/extra-credits/1906-The-Future-of-MMOs