Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Davlos]

Giving Iran the bomb is not a good solution to the problem, as they will just try to flatten the entire area which will draw a large part of the Western World into yet another shitty war that no one really wants in a volatile region.

That opinion tends to be painted by sensationalist media in the West which knows that Israel's interests will be severely hampered by a nuclear-armed Iran, and so they (media) will do everything in their power to defend Israel's interests or they will be immediately labelled "anti-Semitic" or some other retarded rhetorical shit. Seriously, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby is so pervasive that it's causing the US to make foreign policy decisions that are detrimental to its own interests. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was predicated on pleasing Ariel Sharon, not oil. If it was all about oil, the United States would have chosen to make their life easier and sided with the Palestinians so that the Middle Eastern oil barons would stop bitching about it.

For all the blustering rhetoric, the Iranian regime is not suicidal and they know all too well that if they ever get the bomb and so much as to even actually use it, it will mean game over for them. When a state pursues nuclear weapons, it's not for the purpose of using them for the sake of using them, but because nuclear weapons are the key to establishing their geopolitical power and guarantees their security. If anything, there is greater incentive for Iran to get The Bomb because recent events have shown that it's a) always sensible to have it and b) it's foolish to give them up once you have it. Gaddafi voluntarily surrendered his nuclear weapons and all he got in return was an insurrection and getting shot live on TV. Ukraine gave up their nukes in the 90s in exchange for security guarantees from Russia and the US. Fat lot of good it's done for the Ukrainians. Putin wouldn't be messing with Ukraine and fucking with their borders if they still had their nukes.

I'm willing to bet my right arm that once Iran (inevitably) gets the bomb, all that idiotic rhetoric about sending airstrikes into Iran will be over, and Israel will stop behaving like that retarded spoilt child that constantly screams in plane cabins and act like an adult. Adult behavior includes finding a pragmatic and lasting solution with the Palestinians since American weakness will continue to persist and Israel will find itself alone in the Middle East.

[orange]

It isn't the Iranians having nuclear weapons that bothers me.  I view Iran, as a whole, as rational actors.

It is the idea of the Saudis having nuclear weapons that bothers me.  Should Iran produce a weapon, my understanding is the Saudis will start a crash program to develop their own.  I am less confident in the Saudis being rational actors.

[Nicoletta Mithra]

I don't think it's in the interest of the US that Iran has the bomb. Thus...
But really, there was a time when people thought that the bomb solves all conflicts through nuclear dterrance, then stuff like Able Archer 83 happened. The more players enter, the more probable mistakes become. It's kind'a obvious that no one really wants the bomb as it's our best bet to get rid of humanity at the time. It's not sensible in any sophisticated meaning of the word to have the bomb.

Also, honestly, the rhetoric about Israel acting like the 'retarded spoilt child' is just as sensible as that which calls the US acting like the 'pubescent, adolescent hooligan/rowdy'.

[Louella Dougans]

It isn't the Iranians having nuclear weapons that bothers me.  I view Iran, as a whole, as rational actors.

It is the idea of the Saudis having nuclear weapons that bothers me.  Should Iran produce a weapon, my understanding is the Saudis will start a crash program to develop their own.  I am less confident in the Saudis being rational actors.

As I understand things, the Saudis are either planning, or are in the actual process of obtaining, off-the-shelf short-range nuclear weapons from Pakistan.

Some people in Iran want Iran to have nuclear weapons, even just a token handful, so that western powers will leave Iran alone. Given the history of the democratically elected regime being overthrown by a US-UK force, installing a tyrannical absolute monarch instead, and the actions of much of the western powers during the Iran-Iraq war (e.g. the complete lack of action or condemnation when confronted with the evidence of Iraq's use of chemical weapons against Iranian citizens), things like the USS Vincennes incident, and subsequent events, then the wish for the West to just leave Iran alone isn't too difficult to understand.

[Silas Vitalia]

We're veering off topic, but Iran has shown precious little desire to be 'left alone.' They have clea aims to regional hegemony and act accordingly through supplying weapons, manpower, and influence as best they can.

More nuclear weapons, in anyone's hands, is a terrible, suicidal concept. Nuclear  Mutually assured destruction is a terrible idea of that holds most of the planet at knifepoint. If enough nukes are out there it absolutely will happen that someone will screw up, and a good chunk of the planet gets vaporized.

[Lunarisse Aspenstar]

We're veering off topic, but Iran has shown precious little desire to be 'left alone.' They have clea aims to regional hegemony and act accordingly through supplying weapons, manpower, and influence as best they can.

More nuclear weapons, in anyone's hands, is a terrible, suicidal concept. Nuclear  Mutually assured destruction is a terrible idea of that holds most of the planet at knifepoint. If enough nukes are out there it absolutely will happen that someone will screw up, and a good chunk of the planet gets vaporized.

I wholly agree of course it would help if the nuclear powers/UN actually protected the territorial integrity of those without.

[Lyn Farel]

It's better as long as it's only us holding nuclear power.

/cynism

[Silas Vitalia]

It's better as long as it's only us holding nuclear power.

/cynism

Well the solution is always less nuclear weapons, and I hope the US/Russians will continue to chip away at their mutual stockpiles.

This is sort of the one species-level extinction things where it should transcend politics.  It's terrifying that the right sequence of mistakes can end our little experiment called humanity, and we've come very. very. very close on several occasions.

Extremely close with two highly trained and sophisticated militaries, non-state actors or states who have non state actor clients will likely not be as careful.

[Silas Vitalia]

Giving Iran the bomb is not a good solution to the problem, as they will just try to flatten the entire area which will draw a large part of the Western World into yet another shitty war that no one really wants in a volatile region.

That opinion tends to be painted by sensationalist media in the West which knows that Israel's interests will be severely hampered by a nuclear-armed Iran, and so they (media) will do everything in their power to defend Israel's interests or they will be immediately labelled "anti-Semitic" or some other retarded rhetorical shit. Seriously, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby is so pervasive that it's causing the US to make foreign policy decisions that are detrimental to its own interests. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was predicated on pleasing Ariel Sharon, not oil. If it was all about oil, the United States would have chosen to make their life easier and sided with the Palestinians so that the Middle Eastern oil barons would stop bitching about it.

For all the blustering rhetoric, the Iranian regime is not suicidal and they know all too well that if they ever get the bomb and so much as to even actually use it, it will mean game over for them. When a state pursues nuclear weapons, it's not for the purpose of using them for the sake of using them, but because nuclear weapons are the key to establishing their geopolitical power and guarantees their security. If anything, there is greater incentive for Iran to get The Bomb because recent events have shown that it's a) always sensible to have it and b) it's foolish to give them up once you have it. Gaddafi voluntarily surrendered his nuclear weapons and all he got in return was an insurrection and getting shot live on TV. Ukraine gave up their nukes in the 90s in exchange for security guarantees from Russia and the US. Fat lot of good it's done for the Ukrainians. Putin wouldn't be messing with Ukraine and fucking with their borders if they still had their nukes.

I'm willing to bet my right arm that once Iran (inevitably) gets the bomb, all that idiotic rhetoric about sending airstrikes into Iran will be over, and Israel will stop behaving like that retarded spoilt child that constantly screams in plane cabins and act like an adult. Adult behavior includes finding a pragmatic and lasting solution with the Palestinians since American weakness will continue to persist and Israel will find itself alone in the Middle East.

I agree with a lot of your sentiments from the last post or two, but Iran publicly pursuing a bomb will 100% lead to a larger regional conflagration.  Israel is not going to let that happen, and the US will not keep a lid on Israel not letting that happen.

The US has done some piss-poor diplomacy with the whole thing, on all sides, for the last few decades.

Ironically I think the current going theories are that we will actually be aligned with Iran in the not too distant future.

[Vizage]

Here you folks may enjoy this, since you are talking about Iran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomenei. The religious/spiritual/supreme leader of the Islamic nation of Iran issued a Nuclear Fatwah (which his predecessor had also issued) stating that owning and stockpiling Nuclear Arms of any kind is Haram (Aka a sin) in Islam.

Another interesting fact is that he also issued a Fatwah against the use of Biological and Chemical arms. During the Iraq/Iran War Saddam frequently used mustard gas and other chemical weapons of the sort against the Iranians. Khomenei even after his military and government advisor pleaded with him to lift the Fatwah, refused. Iran subsequently never used these kinds of weapons during that war.


Im mentioning this because the Western Media has painted Iran into what (at least to me) is an incompatible corner. On one hand they claim that Iran wants "The bomb" and that its nuclear efforts are solely focused on achieving that goal. On the other however they paint them as rogue nation of radical Shia Muslim's. (Shia being the predominant majority of Iranian's.)

So my question question is. "What do you guys think of this? Can you square the two?"

Discuss...

[Silas Vitalia]

We can split the topic but it is not in dispute that Iran has been working full steam ahead towards bomb making capability.  Their plan isnt so much to openly have the weapons  but rather to be able to quickly assemble enough fissile material to mate with a rocket that has been demonstrated to have x range.

They have been moving away from this position slightly after the banking sanctions started bearing fruit.

But any claims about reactors for peaceful purposes only is hilarious and not fooling anyone. You don't need to enrich nearly that much for civilian reactors, and you don need to enrich it underneath a mountain for civilian purposes, and you don't turn down others to buy reactor ready material either. 

We would be smart to approach the situation more from why they feel they need such a thing and how we can ameleorate those issues.

Also those fatwas are worth their weight in toilet paper. 

[Alizabeth]

Also those fatwas are worth their weight in toilet paper. 

Oh dammit.  You owe me a new monitor.
And I'm agreeing with Silas.  Fuck my miserable fucking god damn fucking life.

[Lunarisse Aspenstar]

Actually, less than their weight as toilet paper as there is some dispute as to whether a Fatwa was actually issued as to nuclear weapons.  At most, it seems that it was verbal and by definition can't be used as a toilet paper or anything else, consisting only of hot air.

I am happy to be proven wrong if someone can link a copy of the actual Fatwa (as opposed to reports talking about it)

[Victoria Stecker]

So for kicks and giggles, someone shelled a UN school being used as shelter for civilians. Isreal is claiming that it was hit by a rocket launched from Gaza that fell short. Everyone else is saying that it was hit by Israeli shells. 16 dead and over 200 wounded.

... which really doesn't seem like much next to the other 750 dead palestinians and 4500 or so wounded.

[kalaratiri]

Channel 4's Jon Snow interviews Dr. Mads Gilbert.

Statistics start at linked point, but the whole video is worth watching (if upsetting).