Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Lunarisse Aspenstar]

Eeps at Aldrith's links.

Putin may be operating under the principle that it's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission with respect to the World community and trying to push this to a head early and quick before the West can finish deciding how to respond.

[Esna Pitoojee]

Yeup. Russian navy vessels have also been spotted patrolling off other Crimean ports, including Balaclava (considered a separate port from the larger Sevastopol port used by the Russian navy).

[Vic Van Meter]

Eeps at Aldrith's links.

Putin may be operating under the principle that it's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission with respect to the World community and trying to push this to a head early and quick before the West can finish deciding how to respond.

It's worked before, still kind of a gamble.  It's hard to predict where and when the U.S. will decide your policy needs to change.  It's not like the U.S. government has been particularly active as of late, but Ukraine seems like the kind of place and situation they tend to get involved.

Ukrainians are probably hoping they can get this figured out before Hell breaks loose on their soil.

[Aldrith Shutaq]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Oh dear...

[orange]

Eeps at Aldrith's links.

Putin may be operating under the principle that it's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission with respect to the World community and trying to push this to a head early and quick before the West can finish deciding how to respond.

It's worked before, still kind of a gamble.  It's hard to predict where and when the U.S. will decide your policy needs to change.  It's not like the U.S. government has been particularly active as of late, but Ukraine seems like the kind of place and situation they tend to get involved.

Ukrainians are probably hoping they can get this figured out before Hell breaks loose on their soil.

This is a reminder - unlike Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or even Syria - Russia retains a robust nuclear arsenal capable of turning western Europe and the United States into glass* and has a veto on the UN Security Council.  It also has a robust space program built to monitor the movement of NATO around the world and has watched how NATO executes war over the course of the above listed conflicts.

*This is what is so appealing about Nuclear weapons to Iran and North Korea.  They want a credible weapon that makes the West think twice about pursuing a regime change without losing a major metropolitan area or two.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

Oh dear...

Yep, four nuclear powers signed up to that. One relinquished its weapons.  Three of them remain nuclear powers.  Two of them have logistical challenges enforcing the treaty and the third just might consider armed opposition to its actions in territory it wants a threat to its sovereignty.

Put another way - unless Russia actually attacks a NATO member who then invokes Article 5, we are most likely sitting on our butts making diplomatic statements about how horrible it is Russia is violating agreements and treaties.

Sorry Ukraine.

[Lyn Farel]

Russian helicopters apparantly heading to the airport in the article above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TVyPiHVZ1A&feature=youtu.be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYFh2lABg48

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x42TWIF6BPk#t=362 (5:52)

[Seriphyn]

Put another way - unless Russia actually attacks a NATO member who then invokes Article 5, we are most likely sitting on our butts making diplomatic statements about how horrible it is Russia is violating agreements and treaties.

Sorry Ukraine.

Sigh. I'm sure the Russians are quaking in their boots at our condemnations.

[Louella Dougans]

I've seen a few things arguing that these events, particularly the thing about the Budapest Memorandum, mean that nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation are now things of the past.

Every country that wishes to have a nuclear weapons program can now point at Ukraine and say that that is what happens when a country gives up nuclear weapons.

so now Saudi Arabia's off-the-shelf weapons from Pakistan, and Iran's self-built ones cannot now be opposed by UK or US diplomats.

[kalaratiri]

[Jace]

It's amazing how much the presidency ages someone.

[orange]

I've seen a few things arguing that these events, particularly the thing about the Budapest Memorandum, mean that nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation are now things of the past.

Every country that wishes to have a nuclear weapons program can now point at Ukraine and say that that is what happens when a country gives up nuclear weapons.

so now Saudi Arabia's off-the-shelf weapons from Pakistan, and Iran's self-built ones cannot now be opposed by UK or US diplomats.

Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament are fundamentally based on the big 5 - US, Russia, China, UK, and France - not violating/threatening the sovereignty of other nations.

Iraq (2003), Georgia (2008), and Senkaku Islands (2013) all drive their neighbors (or world) to consider nuclear weapons as a deterrent against superpower or even regional power aggression.

In 1991, Saddam (incorrectly) believed his WMD arsenal dissuaded the US-led coalition from turning from the liberation of Kuwait to the conquering of Baghdad.

Despite Israeli concerns, I am pretty sure Iran wants nuclear weapons to act as a deterrent against the US/West.  Saudi Arabia wants nuclear weapons to as a deterrent against Iran.

Japan wants nuclear weapons to act as deterrent against China.

Until such a time as the delivery of nuclear weapons is far from assured (Anti-Ballistic Missile systems* and sophisticated Air Defense Systems), then it makes sense in terms of realpolitik for the second tier powers to pursue the development and fielding of nuclear weapons.  It causes first tier powers to consider their actions more carefully.  An invasion of a nation without even basic ICBMs and nuclear warheads allows the global power to dictate the geographical confines of the conflict, but the moment Washington, Moscow, Beijing, London, Paris (or other metros) can be obliterated from a far, the global powers have to rely on the rest of the power tool kit, which can be hard to wield.

*Three nations heavily invest in this technology - US, Japan, Israel.  It also gets Russia all bent out of shape when ABM systems are deployed near their borders.

[Saede Riordan]

Put another way - unless Russia actually attacks a NATO member who then invokes Article 5, we are most likely sitting on our butts making diplomatic statements about how horrible it is Russia is violating agreements and treaties.

Sorry Ukraine.

Sigh. I'm sure the Russians are quaking in their boots at our condemnations.

The United States of America has denounced Russia, warning the rest of the world that they are not to be trusted!

Also

[Lyn Farel]

EDIT : Also

Economic sanctions are being considered.

*Three nations heavily invest in this technology - US, Japan, Israel.  It also gets Russia all bent out of shape when ABM systems are deployed near their borders.

From what I am reading those are having issues against MIRV missiles anyway... I have yet to hear about any major missile developer to overcome that issue, be it US, Israel, or European powers.

Also

 

[orange]

The United States of America has denounced Russia, warning the rest of the world that they are not to be trusted!

This made me smile, because I am playing Civilization V at the moment.

*Three nations heavily invest in this technology - US, Japan, Israel.  It also gets Russia all bent out of shape when ABM systems are deployed near their borders.

From what I am reading those are having issues against MIRV missiles anyway... I have yet to hear about any major missile developer to overcome that issue, be it US, Israel, or European powers.

It does not mean that they are not working on the problem.  Laser-based defense systems may show promise in that regard.

[Aldrith Shutaq]

State of the situation right now:

[spoiler][/spoiler]