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[Silver Night]

I think we all know what really happened here. It's pretty clear this was a secret Black Eagle operation and that this guy is a stooge put in place by the FIO to throw the Minmatar off the scent. What about the fact that in some of the footage from the scene there is the distinct sound of a second shooter? What about the grassy knoll!? In this film, you can clearly see her head going back, and to the left! WHAT IS THE FEDERATION TRYING TO HIDE?

Yeah. That's where this is going. Which isn't to say that there's a giant conspiracy behind it, but there's no way anyone will ever prove there wasn't to the satisfaction of the Minmatar.

I think that's a cool direction for it to go, tbh. Not to mention that in Eve, conspiracy theories are at least a little more likely to be true than in RL.

[Creep]

...God damnit. I just realized. The real man behind the curtains has been amongst us all along.

ISTVAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!

[Shintoko Akahoshi]

Weren't the Republic grievances more about extradition? I don't remember reading anything about the Republic being kept in the dark. There were mentions to the contrary about high-level discussions between President Jacus Roden and Sanmatar Shakor. It would not surprise me there was weekly closed door talks.

That's my impression as well. There were capsuleers complaining about being kept in the dark (and some extending that to assume that the Federation wasn't sharing details with anyone at any level of the various governments), but I don't recall the Republic demanding anything other than transfer of Midular to a Republic hospital and extradition of the shooter.

[Ulphus]

I don't think it should have been released to the public, but FFS, the republic diplomats or what-have-you should have been involved. If a US senator got whacked in a friendly country, you can bet that even if the press wasn't being told, the FBI would have observers on the scene paying attention to what was going on and sharing intel as seemed appropriate.

If the Republic had said "republic police are cooperating with Federation forces to evaluate all possibilities" then that would be end of the issue. The pod pilots would know that "top people" we're working on the problem, and a months delay before details hit the press would be fine.

The republic was saying "We want to know what's going on, and the Fed aren't telling us anything" Which is quite different from the Press complaining about not being told anything.

I just re-read all the news articles, and there seem to be no Republic claims that they weren't being told anything, just demands for extradition. I withdraw my previous comments

[Lyn Farel]

Why would the Black Eagles gain by shooting at Midular ?

[Shintoko Akahoshi]

Nothing that I can think of. The only real connection with the Black Eagles is Blaque's anti-Minmatar views, but I can't think of any reason for the Eagles to throw resources into something like this.

[Svetlana Scarlet]

Clearly, they are trying to destroy leaders within the Minmatar to keep them from being able to be anything more than a Gallente puppet state. I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me...

[Creep]

Clearly, they are trying to destroy leaders within the Minmatar to keep them from being able to be anything more than a Gallente puppet state. I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me...

Pretty sure this is Sarcasm, but I'll bite anyways.
Seeing as the Gallente are essentially bankrolling the Republic as it is, they really don't need to knock off any politicians (seeing as politicians' regimes depend upon being able to fund their projects, and topple if they cannot). Also, I don't recall Midular being anti-Gallente in any regard, but rather pro-Peace-With-Amarr.

In fact, the Gallente bankrolling of the Republic is the biggest reason why 'invade Gallente Space Angrily' is such a dumb move, and why 'kill possibly dissenting politician' is such a bizarre move. All the Gallente have to do is cut off the flow of ISK, and watch as the Tribal Council shuts up and behaves.

The Gallente give enough money just to fund Minmatar public works that the Thukkers were able to build a huge invasion fleet. Given that that fleet would have cost many, many Billions of ISK, and ISK is way more valuable than planetary or local currency, that is SHITLOAD of money just going to civic projects. I'm not sure if that is the only flow of cash that the Gallente give to the Republic, or if they have more publicly declared  avenues of funding, but with the whole 'War' situation, you'd better believe the Federation has been forking over dough to the Military.

[Vikarion]

The Gallente give enough money just to fund Minmatar public works that the Thukkers were able to build a huge invasion fleet. Given that that fleet would have cost many, many Billions of ISK, and ISK is way more valuable than planetary or local currency, that is SHITLOAD of money just going to civic projects. I'm not sure if that is the only flow of cash that the Gallente give to the Republic, or if they have more publicly declared  avenues of funding, but with the whole 'War' situation, you'd better believe the Federation has been forking over dough to the Military.

That's the fun thing about nation-building: the target of your attempt to help usually is neither grateful nor interested in reciprocation.

[Silas Vitalia]

The Gallente give enough money just to fund Minmatar public works that the Thukkers were able to build a huge invasion fleet. Given that that fleet would have cost many, many Billions of ISK, and ISK is way more valuable than planetary or local currency, that is SHITLOAD of money just going to civic projects. I'm not sure if that is the only flow of cash that the Gallente give to the Republic, or if they have more publicly declared  avenues of funding, but with the whole 'War' situation, you'd better believe the Federation has been forking over dough to the Military.

That's the fun thing about nation-building: the target of your attempt to help usually is neither grateful nor interested in reciprocation.

Has it right.

This could also be a very implicit message to other Republic Leadership not to step out of line, or the Black Eagles will pay you a visit, too.

Take our money, do as you're told, give us our cheap immigrant labor force. Don't make noise. No peace with Amar.

Or else.

[Mithfindel]

Or, Option B: It wasn't just a random madman. Someone wants to get rid of Roden, and if the Federation must be destroyed to save it, so be it. Or rather, if the Federation must be destroyed to save someone's wallet. After all, Heth's career path started its exponential rise as a terrorist who had taken over a (strategically important?) Kaalakiota facility. I'm not saying that the Broker did fund the guy, but...

...and there we go to the other alternative: The Republic has access to Insorum. The Broker may assume that they have the recipe and/or enough samples for his needs. He is blackmailing the Republic. I would be happy if this allowed player-meddling and certain someone out-Brokered the Broker. I'm not saing that Istvaan should try this, but...

[Alain Colcer]

Why would the Black Eagles gain by shooting at Midular ?

To make the Federation and the Tribal Assembly less than friends and end economic aid by the Federation, which of course can be better spend increasing Black Eagles resources....

[Creep]

I used to play an online global-role-play strategy game similar to Diplomacy, and when a Player pulled a move like this for the reasons you guys are describing, we called it getting a case of SuperSyphilis (in reference to cases when real-world leaders have contracted syphilis and it drives them batshit insane). Just a totally stupid, unlikely-to-work move which the GM would either force the player to change for the sake of continuity or else just facepalm and let it go through just to let the player destroy themselves.

I'm not saying that what you guys are suggesting isn't what's going to turn out to be the case. CCP's lore department has a strong and healthy reputation for coming down with the SuperSyphilis.

I am saying that "freeing up resources" for the Black Eagles by causing the most valuable military alliance that the embattled Federation has to become its enemy is a pants-on-head retarded idea. The Federation hasn't been doing superbly, you know. They only just managed to get a hostile Titan out of one of their star systems after Three Years. Their capsuleer militia may be doing well at the moment, but I remember the time when all of Gallente Warzone space was Squidspace, and anyone in power will as well. If the Black Eagles want more cash, I assure you they can squeeze it from the Senate under 'undisclosed expenses' (like every single respectable real-world intelligence agency already does).


Additionally: Silas and Vikarion: Of course the Republic has no plans to pay back the money the Gallente are paying them, nor are they exactly going to roll over whenever the Gallente tell them to just because the Gallente is the Hand That Feeds. However, the Republic's welfare does rely heavily on Gallente aid, and the Republic's politicians' careers rely on the continued good health of the Republic's Welfare. Now that is going to give the Republic's Tribal Council pause. Nobody — and I mean nobody — in the Republic wants to see the money dry up. That money allows the Republic to keep on ticking without actually having to shave wages, drop employment, lose voting bases, etc.

In RL, China made the previous Great Leader of North Korea shut his mouth (he was doing the same missile-rattling that his son is doing) by cutting off their oil pipeline. The United States has caused drastic domestic policy changes in other nations by threatening to cut off the huge amounts of money it hands out as part of its foreign policy. Europe is threatening Uganda over their Kill-The-Gays law with the same thing.

Additionally, given that Shakor, Mr Warlike, is in charge, I cannot see why the Fed would want to strain relations now, while everything is going smoothly. Midular's peace was in minority, Shakor's war stance was dominant and also he's now got more power than she ever did. Peace with Amarr is not a likely situation — the Minmatar have been doing far better in this war than the Gallente have. Sending a message to pacifist politicians is something Shakor might do, but the Fed? I strongly doubt it.

[Alain Colcer]

Creep

You give good arguments, but i think right now the Federation is in a different position:

1) The republic is no more, you have an assembly, and therefore each "tribe" decides what to do, Federation no longer has a single entity to which it can bring "matters" of any kind for arbitrage, it has to deal with tribes, clans and ultimately with the entire assembly.....a much harder bone.

2) The economy of the Federation seems to be in a healthy state, absence of newsreels about it cannot confirm truhtfuly, but since almost all placid/essence has been taken back from provists and last official news indicated a sharp rise in drafting for military personnel, i can only assume budgets in defense have risen.

3) Jacus Roden is a corporate leader first and foremost, and i presume more stuff has been sub-contracted or privatized under his term as president.


Under the above scenario, why would you keep sending ISK to a body who nor "repay" back  neither become a good business partner?

The Caldari provists (not the state) are an ever present danger, Amarr have dangerous signs, and Matari Tribal representatives are hell-bent on going all out war against the Amarr....if there are no "friends" out there, wouldn't you throw all the money at trying to fortify your position or increase deterrant?

[Creep]

Creep

You give good arguments, but i think right now the Federation is in a different position:

1) The republic is no more, you have an assembly, and therefore each "tribe" decides what to do, Federation no longer has a single entity to which it can bring "matters" of any kind for arbitrage, it has to deal with tribes, clans and ultimately with the entire assembly.....a much harder bone.

2) The economy of the Federation seems to be in a healthy state, absence of newsreels about it cannot confirm truhtfuly, but since almost all placid/essence has been taken back from provists and last official news indicated a sharp rise in drafting for military personnel, i can only assume budgets in defense have risen.

3) Jacus Roden is a corporate leader first and foremost, and i presume more stuff has been sub-contracted or privatized under his term as president.


Under the above scenario, why would you keep sending ISK to a body who nor "repay" back  neither become a good business partner?

The Caldari provists (not the state) are an ever present danger, Amarr have dangerous signs, and Matari Tribal representatives are hell-bent on going all out war against the Amarr....if there are no "friends" out there, wouldn't you throw all the money at trying to fortify your position or increase deterrant?

You're going to have to walk me through this one.

What I see:
Gallente Fed fears one empire above all others: Amarr. The Amarr are the most powerful of all the possible factions. The Caldari are smaller and less wealthy, plus far less populous, even with their tube babies.
The Minmatar HATE the Amarr. With Shakor at the helm (and I believe he acts as a pseudo-tyrant over the Tribal Council? Or have his powers been cut down since the Council met?), there's absolutely no chance for peace, since he is a Warboss hellbent on liberation of slaves etc.
The Mimatar are poor. Their entire infrastructure is rife with corruption, they have endemic poverty (Skarkon actually voted in majority to join the Angel Cartel rather than continue with the Republic's management!), and cannot hope to match the Amarr navy in strength.
The Minmatar are in a state of war-by-capsuleer-proxy with the Amarr. The Gallente are not (but are close to it).
It is, therefore, in the best interests of the Gallente that the Minmatar do not LOSE against the Amarr.
It makes sense, then, that the Gallente would continue funding and supplying the Minmatar war effort (Roden recently offered to give the Minmatar a huge amount of Drones, which which to harass the Amarr systems).

I really cannot see where in this dynamic (predating the recent Minmatar attack) it would make sense for the Gallente to cut off the cash flow and shore up their own situation. The War on the Caldari is starting to swing back in their favor, both on the Capsuleer front, and the Home front. The Minamatar continue to only just match the Amarr blow-for-blow. Now is not the time for the Gallente to pull any punches. They need to go for the jugular on both counts.

Unless you have deeper insights?