It's just CCP railroading the Caldari to lose. Again. It doesn't matter what we actually do in the game, the Caldari are almost certainly going to lose Caldari Prime.
Provide examples of all the times the Caldari has been railroaded into losing?
Either that or stop complaining.
I've done so on this site.
For example:
First major taking of territory in FW: the Caldari take a bunch of systems. No ill effects for the Gallente.
The Gallente take a bunch of systems (the FOOM push): CCP writes that they conduct a scorched earth campaign, wrecking Black Rise.
The Caldari FWers take all systems and hold them for 6-8 months: The Caldari corporations make an unbelievably stupid decision and move into Placid with tons of infrastructure and investments. No "scorched earth" policy here, nu-uh. The instant they lose those systems, the State is in a recession again. The Gallente, on the other hand, suffer nothing but getting a new and much more awesome president.
Eventually the Gallente take all Caldari systems for several hours. Tibus Heth starts a civil war in the State. along with a lot more crap.
Then the Caldari retake most of Black Rise and a good chunk of Placid. So Heth cancels the Blind Auction, crippling the Megas even more, and the Gallente start retaking Caldari Prime.
And that's just FW.
EDIT: I mean, seriously, the Gallente got a new and much better leader when the Caldari took all Gallente systems. What did we get? We had Heth, possibly the character that Caldari RPers hate the most, survive an assassination attempt.
You've made your contempt for the current course of Caldari story quite clear. I sometimes wonder do you pause to see the moments where Caldari are actually portrayed as decent folk and not nazi jackboots. I'll give you a few examples;
Feds burn Black Rise ok... They prove to be the villain here. In this particular case very clearly too.
Caldari don't do that. Making them have the moral high ground in the war, and earning them good guy points.
Feds have drug crazed convicts approved as ground troops who fucking shit up in multitude of ways.
Caldari don't. They have professional military folks and mercenaries who either don't do that, or do that on such a small scale that it's not even a blip on the radar. Thus again making them better of two evils in the war.
In regards to how the two entities are portrayed Caldari do have in this matter the good guy badge. Sure they they shot first but the following conduct of war quite shows the Caldari coming out ahead morally if not financially internal politics aside.
Right back to the topic. Caldari are quickly heading down the road to civil unrest if not war. When they start to struggle internally, it would no surprise that they could not support the supply lines and effort to keep Caldari Prime under their yoke. They're stretching their limits as they are as mentioned in TBL. So if the Leviathan does indeed get nuked, it shouldn't come as any surprise.