Anyone else get the feeling this is going to be a repeat of the earlier Live Events, where no matter what we do the outcome is the same?
At the current stage of live events, there's an emerging structure that I can see that all future live events will seem to follow.
CCP, whether by intent or lack of resources, is not focusing on Live Events that are small in their impact. Small live events as I describe them are events that open and close storylines in small and confined areas. The Zainou defector/traitor that recently made the news would seem to be a 'small event', but due to the over all implications of that character's part in the Sleeper Storyline, it is most likely a major event incognito. As a counter example, a Covenant commander raiding a constellation in typical fashion and is killed is a pretty open / shut case. If, later down the road, it shows that that Commander was actually a vanguard for some bigger op, then it is was not a small live event.
As I've observed from the Sansha Loyalist side of things, nearly all (if not all) events have occurred at a big scale - Galactic game changing affairs. With rumors and foreshadowing of other events occurring now reaching me involving the Sleeper Storyline, I can only presume that these events will have the same galactic game impact that the Sansha storyline has. Thus, the live event team's mission, for all purposes that I can see, is to introduce a gateway for players to affect EVE's macro story rather than micro stories. I presume this to be in line with CCP's philosophy, as player based run and operated micro stories is one of the big things they like to leave to itself.
The issue that ultimately bothers people involved with the live events, I think, is how much railroading CCP will do in order to insure their business goals are met. I do not know if the live events returned in order to grant player involvement, and were later hijacked by business executives for a new profit vector, or if the intent from the beginning was to progress the storyline to match their expansions. In either case, if the live events system is ultimately tied to the business affairs of CCP, then there is a certain finality to what will happen to every storyline.
If the mysteries of W-Space and the Sleeper storyline are unfolded in order to meet the upcoming release of DUST, or an Apocrypha 2.0, then the macro story will follow that business decision. Players will be unable to stop the macro story from allowing the business decision to occur, and that insures a type of predestined 'win/lose' conditions, depending. As Cmdr Baxter alludes, the business decision to release Incursion insured the supremacy of the Nation and its absolute win condition.
There is an argument to be had that allowing players the ability to stop an expansion's deployment through participation in the story is asinine. I would agree with that, and there is an issue that occurs when story and expansion features are tied together. By weaving the Sansha storyline together with the upcoming Incursion system, it insured the absolute win condition for the Nation - because the storyline itself was a major feature of the expansion. No effort by players to halt the Sansha would stop Incursion from being realized. Similarly, if the business decision to market a new Big Bad occurs or a new type of flavor is wanted, an absolute loss condition is set for the Sansha.
Admittedly, perhaps I am not seeing this with the best perspective. I myself have no experience as a tabletop GM in the manner of managing storylines, and perhaps railroading is the only method CCP can do to insure it even works. I suppose, however, that is the price one has to pay for being involved in the live events. When you choose to be involved in the macrostory, you sacrifice most of your freedom of action to the needs of story authors.
tl;dr
To answer your question Baxter: It will be if they're tied to an expansion deadline (presumably DUST).