In my opinion, there are two major questions to be answered yet:
1, will CVA be able to secure the entry routes and other choke points into Providence? We've seen Ev0ke going after the KBP entrance, which also throws the G-5 entrance into peril. The Y-M pipe seems to be pretty firmly under the control of AGONY at the moment, while R3 seems to carry the best chance of being resecured. Even then, actually making those pipelines (relatively) safe to transit is a whole different issue.
2, does CVA have a plan to deal with the eventuality that whatever local power rules the majority of Catch will simply swing by and burn everything in Providence to the ground again, either for fun, profit, or strategic reasoning?
These two questions will decide the future of Providence with regards to CVA: If they can secure a route to Empire space, they may be able to restore an "open" Providence; however, if enough alliances such as Ev0ke continue to bite off large blocks of space instead of the mix-and-match of smaller alliances, it coudl quickly bog down or stop entirely.