I would be very surprised if a DUST 514 result favoring the Caldari has any impact at all upon the storyline. Somewhat divorced from my general cynicism about Falcon and CCP, as a practical matter the dusties can't choose the side they fight on in a particular match, and while I have heard of a lot of dusties trying to throw matches, it seems like a rather difficult mechanism for loyalty to operate through. Somewhat unrealistic.
I can just see it:
Player 1: "Hey, why are you sitting in the operations room playing solitaire? We're supposed to be out fighting for the Fed!"
Player 2: "For the State!"
Anyway, with the scripted event over CP having the Leviathan destroyed, it seems that CCP is bent on reverting CP to Fed control. So, if the State wins on the ground, this will present some serious problems for that storyline. In that case they have a few options:
1. (Least likely) The State wins. Dusties and Caldari civvies on the ground effectively tell the Federation to fuck off.
2. (Most likely, at this point): The State wins. This is written into a stalemate situation, giving the Fed a chance to have another go, or to maintain a constant level of battle.
3. State wins. CCP writes it up as a Gallente victory anyway, possibly through an applied Macguffin or another scripted space event.
4. Fed wins. They get CP, and we get a few weeks of news articles about all of Tibus Heth's death camps.
5. Fed wins, but is written up as a stalemate, or there are still resisters. This allows for future battles and a continuation in the Dust map roster.
For my money, I'm betting on option 2. I don't see how there's any way CCP would give the State a clear cut victory on the ground, if for no other reason than that they then can't use that really pretty Titan map (I think - it is beta, after all).