As an international relations and security studies student, it pains me to no end to see people take an extremely one-dimensional and/or one-sided view to this conflict. Firstly...
The bombardment of Caldari Prime was not because the Gallente were unhappy with the Caldari leavingWhat started out as a territorial ownership dispute was exploited by cultural nationalists on the Caldari side, and imperialist elites on the Gallente side, as an opportunity to push their goals. This is EVE, we're talking about. It is more than likely the situation was manipulated by powerful people from the start. Using
The Early Days chronicle, I'll give a run-down of how the war started, with my own personal perspectives from both sides. I may very well be biased towards the Gallente side, but hey, the RP community hardly paints the Caldari in a negative light with this area of history anyway.
It all started when a Gallente exploration ship happened upon one of the hidden Caldari colonies. When the Federation Senate learned of this they demanded a full-scale investigation into the matter and that all hidden Caldari colonies should immediately been put under Federation authority. This was too much for the Caldari Corporations, which were already grumbling over increasing Federation interference into their affairs. For the Caldari it was a simple question of losing their autonomy forever by caving in or making a stand right then and there. They decided to make a stand.
"You have established these colonies without abiding by Federation law and regulation. What is the meaning of this? Space is to be shared between all individuals, and the Federation seeks to ensure that this can be done freely and peacefully. The Gallente, Intaki, Mannar and others understand these concepts""Shared between all, or shared for the benefit of Gallente interests? We have established these colonies in secret, as this mutual law and regulation you refer to is, in reality, all for the benefit of Gallente Prime. The Intaki, Mannar, and others might be so naive as to believe in the Federation's ideals, but we are not. The Caldari reserve the right to carve out an area of space, to determine our own destiny""The esteemed Senator is correct. The area of space claimed by these Caldari corporations is not Federation territory, so how can the laws of the Federation apply there?""These corporations are still registered economic entities of this Federation. It is clear we need to need to figure out a peaceful resolution"What happens next, who knows. Some important points...
This was too much for the Caldari Corporations, which were already grumbling over increasing Federation interference into their affairs.
The Federation was interfering in the Caldari
corporations and not the society. How representative of the entire Caldari people were the Caldari corporations? It says they were "well-established" in society, and "preeminent in Caldari economic life". Sure, Google, Microsoft and Facebook are well-established in our societies, but they can not be said to represent us as national bodies. I'm not saying they didn't, but it is something to think about. I doubt anyone here could say with a straight face that every single Gallente wanted to oppress the Caldari, and every single Caldari wanted to get rid of the Gallente. With this in mind...
The initial dispute was a disagreement between the Federation Senate and Caldari megacorporations, NOT the Gallente and the CaldariIt says the Federation Senate demanded the Caldari corporations hand their territory over. This may very well include Intaki, Mannar and Caldari Senators as well. In response, the Caldari corporations formed the Caldari State. Why did the Federation Senate ultimately decide to demand they hand it over?
Of the Caldari people, the Caldari Senators, and the Caldari nations, how many subscribed to this new State?For some reason or another, the Caldari megacorporations were able to take control of all of Caldari Prime and the Caldari people, regardless of peaceful leanings. Was this in unanimous support? What about the Caldari who did not want anything to do with the megacorporations? This is what I refer to as to how this initial disagreement was exploited by nationalists at the highest level, rather than individuals waving pickets at the lowest.
Right after the Caldari defected from the Federation they focused on securing the jump gates leading to their (once) hidden bases, as those bases provided the backbone to the Caldari military infrastructure at that time.
The Caldari were the first to militarize the situation. Would the Federation have deployed their military otherwise? No, but a response to a provocation is necessary. Would the Caldari have trusted the Federation to not immediately attempt to militarily secure the secret colonies otherwise? No. This is called the security dilemma in international relations. One side side does not know what the other side intends, and they must act with the worst case scenario in mind. The other side then responds in kind, and the situation detiorates because of insecurity.
The Federation blockaded Caldari Prime in response to the State militarization of the situation. The State militarized the situation because they could not be sure what the Federation might do in response to their secession. This is called the security dilemmaFor the next few days nothing much happened. The Caldari were content to sit by the jump gates, while the Gallenteans were debating how to best negotiate a peace agreement. But the Caldari on Caldari Prime were restless. They found the Gallente blockade intolerable and soon small-scale guerrilla activities escalated into all out hostilities. In the end the Gallente population on the planet had to pay the price for the Federation’s indecisiveness.
This is important. The Federation did
not want a war. They were trying to negotiate a peace agreement. They were debating it, meaning there were
different opinions on the matter. There was no universal Federal stance as to what was to be done.
The next important bit is that the Caldari struck the first blow. "All-out hostilities" suggests just that, between the Caldari and the Gallente on Caldari Prime. But who would these forces be? Federal-sympathetic nations on Caldari Prime versus State-supporting nations? Nonetheless, this is overlooked.
The Federation was not on a warpath, and the Caldari struck the first blow against Gallente nationals, again due to insecurity about the situationThen comes the turning point we are all familiar with; the attack on Nouvelle Rouvenor. This is when I turn to the next chronicle,
The Breakout. It's right in the opening sentence.
Following the attack on Nouvelle Rouvenor an extreme right-wing government grabbed the power reigns in the Gallente Federation and advocated a harsh response: bombing Caldari Prime and sending in troops to take control of the planet.
They "grabbed the power reigns". Were they elected? It doesn't say they were elected. Moreover, the dates on the FW quotes suggests the Ultra-Nationalists came into power a mere
twenty-four hours after the attack. It is clear this was an uprising at the highest level and NOT a popular one. Secondly, the Federation's response was NOT genocide, and was to take
military control of the planet. Yes, there are quotes from the politicians in the FW ranks, but this is
rhetoric. "Making the Caldari silence permanent" could easily refer to a Caldari political silence. After all, an individual would be a human before they are a Caldari.
Moreover, from the dates and quotes in the FW ranks, the fascist-led Federation bombarded Caldari Prime for a single day before asking for surrender. This does not sound like genocide to me. When the Caldari refused, the Federation simply decided to continue the bombardment coupled with a ground invasion until the planet ultimately surrendered. What of the secret colonies, though? The situation had become so militarized, politicized, and radicalized, that this was no longer a dispute about territory, but a dispute about control.
Extremists had exploited the trauma inflicted on the Federation to seize control (possibly undemocratically) for their own objectives. Their goals were to protect Federation stability at any costThis is a plausible goal of a group calling themselves the "Ultra-Nationalists", after all. Now, then, the time between the bombardment to the Hueromont Incident is almost exactly 2 months. It is stated, towards the end of The Breakout, that the Hueromont Incident forced the fascist government out of power to be replaced with a moderate one. This means that the fascist government was in power for only a couple of months before they became unpopular enough to be ousted. This lends more credence to the idea that they were not popular to begin with. A moderate government followed through, but the Federation was not willing to forgive for Hueromont. So, from that, I could easily say...
Federation public opinion was not in favour of orbital bombardment, if the militaristic government only lasted a couple of monthsThe important thing to take from this harkens from many concepts found in politics and international relations. These are...
a) Political realismCovering one's motivations in idealistic sentiment to further goals of power and self-gain. Even the Caldari corporations would have been guilty of this, waving flags of nationalistic sentiment to guarantee their control of their secret colonies. The Ultra-Nationalists justified their bombardment of Caldari Prime as retribution for the souls lost at Nouvelle Rouvenor; in reality, they just wanted them subsumed.
b) Insecurity and the security dilemmaThe militarization of the situation started when the Caldari were unsure (ie. insecure) about how the Federation may respond to their secession. Likewise, the Federation could realistically not militarize on their end, either. Even if the Caldari asserted they were just defending their new territory, how could the Federation know if they were being truthful? This is the security dilemma.
c) Politicalization and radicalizationThe initial issue was nothing to do with Gallente culture interfering with Caldari society. The Caldari corporations, like Matias Sobaseki in his "National Address" (see FW rank quotes), radicalized the situation by stating that the attempt by the Federation Senate to assert authority over the secret colonies was an interference in Caldari culture, rights, and self-determination. These issues were politicized by becoming the primary point of discussion in the Senate (again, see FW rank quotes), rather than the whole original point about ownership rights. Forces on both sides twisted the reality of the situation.
d) Crisis opportunismIt may be very possible that elites on both sides (nationalists within the Caldari corporations, imperialist elites/lobbyists over the Federal Senate) seeked to exploit the situation for their own benefit. A war may prove very profitable, after all, or maybe those with extreme ideals who genuinely believed in those ideologies wanted the situation to deteriorate so that they could fulfill their destinies and visions. The political flashpoint was the perfect crisis to be exploited by opportunistic individuals who wished to push their own goals through.
For a meer territorial dispute to go all the way to an all-out war means there is a LOT of factors that have not been explored by CCP. And the more factors there are, the more complicated the situation becomes. Remember, EVE is about shades of grey. Don't cheapen the IP by saying that one side was completely in the wrong. The 2003 chronicle is very clear in its attempts to be two-sided, just some RPers have seemed to have forgotten and overlooked many of the key points (heck, even I may have overlooked some choice points, and be influenced by confirmation bias).
Hope you enjoyed this read.