Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Kaito Haakkainen]

350 billion people watched the 96 Mindclash Championship.
780 billion people watched the the first-ever Haysid Cup tournament in the Galactic Gravball League.
http://www.eveonline.com/news.asp?a=single&nid=1854&tid=7

More relevantly:

Nearly 2.8 trillion citizens voted in the election, by far the highest turnout in the history of Gallentean democracy.

http://www.eveonline.com/news.asp?a=single&nid=1296&tid=4

Ignoring non-voters and rounding to 2.8 trillion:
One third of the Federation is made up of 900 billion Minmatar immigrants
One fifth of Minmatar reside in the Federation making the total 4.6 trillion.
One quarter, 1.15 trillion, Minmatar are in the Republic.
Almost a third, just under 1.53 trillion are slaves within the Empire.
Leaving just over one trillion living as fremen, pirates, etc. (presumably including the Thukkers)
http://www.eveonline.com/races/minmatar.asp
There also less than 2.8 trillion Caldari, more than 2.8 trillion Amarr and assorted other factions.

That gives an extremely conservative minimum population, counting the Empire equal to the Federation, not counting any Matari twice, and ignoring unmentioned factions, unaffiliated populations/individuals, and the Caldari State, of 7.75 trillion.

Given that not everyone voted, that the Empire is likely to have a much larger population than the Federation, and that there are many ignored factions that likely have significant populations the number would likely be above 20 trillion. All assuming any of these values mean anything, hopefully the new direction the PF folks are taking will give us something more concrete.

Either way if asked I'd be comfortable replying tens of trillions and if pushed on the matter point out that no one knows how many people live beyond empire and that the census offices can't count everyone. It would be reasonable to expect that the Amarr Civil Service would have a hard time providing even a rough estimate of their empires population given the number of enslaved heads not counted through un-registered breeding and capture and that there are entire populated worlds they have all but forgotten about with many others likely paid similarly small amounts of bureaucratic attention.

[Alain Colcer]

Kaito, digging that jewel is the most awesome number i've seen 

[Elsebeth Rhiannon]

Awesome, Kaito. That was the first and only quality post on the population numbers I've ever seen.

[Borza]

Indeed.

And remember 2.8 trillion doesn't just exclude those who chose not to vote, but those not eligible too. Including children of course. Possibly criminals? Not sure if that's the case in Gallente.

[Silver Night]

Nice, Kaito.

The population numbers seem to vary a bit by who is doing the writing. (IE TonyG stories and storylines tend to have pretty low numbers. *ahem*.)

I've always been of the opinion that given an internal volume on the order of 10^3 cubic kilometers, and given the sort of traffic they support, a station population of less than millions seems low for most stations.

[hellgremlin]

Wow, that's a great analysis. I think it's the best bet.

[Svetlana Scarlet]

I still maintain that that number is extremely nonsensical knowing what we know of the history of Eve.  It does seem like a good bet based on what we're told, but it doesn't make much sense based on populations being planetbound until relatively recently, as well as population growth trends in developed nations. Then again, no one at CCP is a demographer as far as I know.

Note that the main reason for the increase in population on the Earth in the last 100 years (which has been very dramatic) was largely due to the Green Revolution, and is extremely uncharacteristic compared to the entirety of human history.  Those sorts of things aren't likely to happen on a regular basis (especially since the long-term consequences of things like industrial farming are only now starting to come to roost).

[Kaito Haakkainen]

United States Census Bureau puts Earths population as 6,895,600,000
The CIA World Factbook puts the growth rate at 1.13% and the US population growth at 0.98%

Gallenteans began colonizing beyond their own system around 750 years before the capsuleer era.

Assuming a population equal to Earths then:
750 years at world growth = 31.5 trillion
750 years at US growth = 10.4 trillion
(Note: I'm not great at math. If these numbers, or any others, are way off please correct me.)

Of course Gallente Prime is not Earth, the Gallente had likely started expanding into their home system already, and growth rates go up when prosperity, space, and resources increase. Given the many unknown factors I wouldn't say 2.8 trillion voters is unreasonable. Even if the number was made up on the spot with little thought it's not necessarily a "bad" number.

Add in three more empires and a variety of bloodlines along with the period of great expansion for the Amarrians and a number of bloodlines being consumed by the Empire along the way during over 2000 years of colonization and I wouldn't call values in the tens of trillions extremely nonsensical.

In addition it's surprising to me that someone would call 2048 years, or even 750 years, relatively recently. Especially in relation to a compound growth rate.

Of course human history to this point is a poor measure of the nature of populations existing in an environment of inter-planetary colonization with vastly more powerful governments able to engage not only in colonization efforts but the terraforming of new worlds along with automated farming, nano-technology, underwater cities and non-planetary colonies, mass breeding of slaves, and perhaps most pertinent to this discussion improved medical science and lifetimes that can extend far beyond our own.

While the hazards of New Eden may keep the mortality rates high in certain areas I'd say these factors justify a guess that places the population between the exceptionally wide and forgiving goal posts of tens of trillions.

Ref:
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Timeline#Age_of_Expansion_.28AD_16262_-_YC_100.29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate

[Svetlana Scarlet]

When you're talking about decades at a minimum (probably closer to centuries) to terraform planets (not to mention the expense) and looking at industrialized societies where there is little social impetus to have big families, that kind of growth seems unsustainable. If you look at most industrialized nations today, most actually have dwindling populations because people are simply not having that many children anymore. Russia is probably the biggest example I can think of. The US is actually an anomaly because much of our population growth is from new immigrants entering the country or recent immigrants from developing countries (who still tend to have larger families).

Most of that population growth in our current world is in developing nations, where your "social safety net" is still having as many children as possible in the hopes that they will be able to take care of you when you're older.  As societies industrialize and become more affluent -- as any society which can afford to spend the money on colonizing a solar system almost has to be (it's not a cheap endeavor) -- that kind of population growth just isn't likely, because children switch from being a safety net to being a burden. When a child can leave the house at 13 and get a job on a farm or in a mine to help the family make ends meet, that's one thing -- but when most of those jobs are gone, usually replaced by industrialized/automated methods that are far more efficient, it becomes much more expensive to raise children and provide for their education, either for the parents or for the society, if education/medical care/etc is socialized.

You're also assuming that population can keep growing at that rate indefinitely, and I don't think that is a valid assumption either. Populations are limited by food, living space, disease, etc. At some point, the population on Earth is going to have to stop growing because it's just not sustainable. Already, we're seeing environmental costs of overpopulation and growing industrialization -- overfishing, soil contamination due to industrial farming methods, anti-biotic resistant bacteria, to say nothing of resource constriction (less of an issue if you can get off the planet and you have fusion power) and industrial pollution (everything from CO2 in the atmosphere to heavy metals). The only reason everyone in the US can live like they do is because there's not that many of us compared to the rest of the world. If China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa were to industrialize to the same extent as the US, Europe, and Japan tomorrow, the whole system would collapse.

The other reason I find it hard to believe that the population numbers can be that high is simply because those political entities are actually able to hold everything together. China has a hard enough time resisting civil instability with a billion people, I think governing a nation of trillions, with the complications of lightyears of distance (though admittedly Eve largely handwaves this problem) would be almost impossible, especially if many or most of those worlds were self-sustaining.

[Invelious]

That was a wicked number crunch. Now, lets find out how many people die every day in new eden.

[Kaito Haakkainen]

I'm certainly not putting forward those numbers as sustained. Merely a hypothetical example that may represent average growth. Writing about numbers which are often believed to be lower (and such beliefs are just as valid as my own given the lack of data) I pushed towards a minimum value using the Gallente Federation, which I feel would have the lowest population growth amongst the empires. Your evidence for low growth there is compelling. Personally I feel that factors such as the availability of technology, resources, space to fill and likely heavy propaganda involving colonization efforts would produce a modest positive growth rate, or at least is likely to have done enough during the centuries to drive the population to high numbers.

On the other extreme are the Amarr. Their focus on bloodline and heredity seem much more likely to promote large families and the growth of the faithful (who believe in the destiny of faith ref: Book of Reclaiming 22:13). This along with their slave breeding programs, conquests of populated worlds, and impressive spread throughout 40% of known systems in New Eden would likely give us a higher population with a higher rate of growth.

The Minmatar, officially the most numerous of all the races, go almost everywhere and generally seem to breed like rabbits even outside of Amarrian breeding programs.

The Caldari on the other hand represent a much lower population with a very high rate of growth. Note here the tube child program and that if this was undertaken the Caldari no doubt turned their considerable propaganda machine towards increasing the population in competition with the Federation, leveraging the loyalty and sense of duty of the people

And again we have the other factions who are doing whatever it is such people do.  

It's my opinion that the figure of 2.8 trillion voters and a cluster-wide population in the tens of trillions holds up against other PF references and makes sufficient realistic sense to be useful without breaking immersion. By no means am I insisting on the correctness of the numbers, they are simply my best guess and I hold enough confidence in them to feel comfortable role-playing with them until compelling contradictory sources are brought forward. The guess was made public as I hope others might find my thoughts on the subject useful in their RP or imagining of the setting and I welcome any other guesses or evidence that help advance the topic.

[Svetlana Scarlet]

The other thing you have to remember about those numbers is that the world population growth this century is completely abnormal in human history, largely due to the aforementioned Green Revolution and breakthroughs in medical science.  In 1800, the world population was roughly a billion people.  In 1920, 2 billion, then 4 billion by about 1970.  That's a huge increase in the rate of growth. As I said, it seems unlikely that can be sustained, but then it's hard to predict the future.

As far as the death tolls...going by the roughly a bizillion people that are killed every day if you assume crews on all ships, the population of New Eden must not only be astronomical but he probably needs to have astronomical growth too.  I tend to think that that has to be discarded in any sort of figuring of populations if you want anything to be at all realistic.

[Kaito Haakkainen]

Agreeing with Svetlana here, the death toll couldn't be accurately, or even roughly, calculated. On the one hand we have the many deaths that play out in game among ship and structure crews (despite escape pods) while on the other we have major news stories about handfuls of people at risk of dying, events few would care about in the next country or district let alone another world. This leaves few indicators of what a "significant" death toll for even a single event is.

In the name of content I'd mention that I doubt it's as high as many would think. Certainly there are areas of New Eden that are hellish places to live and there's all manner of nastiness occurring out there but the PF generally portrays your average citizen leading a relatively secure and mundane life. The majority of people probably never see another continent let alone travel through space and the many disasters and acts of destruction are absorbed somewhat by the large population of the cluster. With the tallest blade of grass usually getting cut first people need only keep their heads down to stay out of most trouble. Of course we don't hear a great many of these stories because they're not that interesting outside of infodumps. If the majority truly believed their lives could be snuffed out at any moment we'd see a much less varied and interesting setting. Such people tend to be more "people living under constant fear of death" than they are Minmatar, Caldari, or Sani Sabik. Pervasive fear is dark and grim and all that but it doesn't make for an interesting variety of cultures.

I'd be unsurprised, though I make no claim, to find New Eden has a lower number of violent deaths per capita than Earth given the large swathes of space that live under the aegis of strong government and relative unimportance. Of course this could swing the other way depending on the level of negligence going on in the larger, less involved, areas. Certainly there are the "Big Bads" but organized crime tends not to make much mess and the outlaw factions probably have little tolerance for fuss being made around their operations. It's not beyond reason to expect an Angel Cartel affiliated gang to take down a serial killer or threateningly resolve a strike action to keep the eyes of the powers that be away from their little corner of the universe, nor for the Amarr to come crashing down like a ton of bricks upon an upstart warlord or rabble rouser which has likely kept them from regularly facing prolonged civil war and insurrection.

[orange]

Interplanetary and interstellar population pressures... hmm...

When you're talking about decades at a minimum (probably closer to centuries) to terraform planets (not to mention the expense) and looking at industrialized societies where there is little social impetus to have big families, that kind of growth seems unsustainable. If you look at most industrialized nations today, most actually have dwindling populations because people are simply not having that many children anymore. Russia is probably the biggest example I can think of. The US is actually an anomaly because much of our population growth is from new immigrants entering the country or recent immigrants from developing countries (who still tend to have larger families).

I do not think you can simply apply the trends seen in the developed world since the 1930s to various interstellar cultures and entities.  And these population pressures are likely to vary based on community, continent, world, constellation, and region.

The other reason I find it hard to believe that the population numbers can be that high is simply because those political entities are actually able to hold everything together. China has a hard enough time resisting civil instability with a billion people, I think governing a nation of trillions, with the complications of lightyears of distance (though admittedly Eve largely handwaves this problem) would be almost impossible, especially if many or most of those worlds were self-sustaining.

There are multiple ways to approach the problem of governing many over vast distances.  The most immediate in my mind is how centralized authority & responsibility are at each level of governance.

The degree of self-sustainment is also up for discussion.  Are the core worlds of each empire truly self-sustaining?  If they are not and the resource colonies are on the brink of reversion to an agrarian society, the core worlds have a vested interest in trade and shared governance with resource colonies.

The ability to trade between worlds, the ability to govern multiple worlds, is the very thing that allows some of those worlds to grow to high populations than they can self-sustain.

You're also assuming that population can keep growing at that rate indefinitely, and I don't think that is a valid assumption either. Populations are limited by food, living space, disease, etc. At some point, the population on Earth is going to have to stop growing because it's just not sustainable.  ... nothing of resource constriction (less of an issue if you can get off the planet and you have fusion power)

Your caveat appears to invalidate this concern for New Eden for at least the past 1,000 years of its history.

[Louella Dougans]

With the population explosion in recent centuries within empire space many people have found themselves without homes or jobs, and have been pushed into leaving their homeworld for greener pastures. Many of these settlers have wound up in neutral space, and some even in space historically controlled by the outlawed "pirate" organizations. These settlers often have to fight a very difficult battle to survive, against both the forces of nature and those of man.

Although the empires generally consider the areas outside of their own realm being lawless and do not recognize them as sovereign states, there actually are rules to be followed even in the most bloodthirsty and barbaric nations. Each of the pirate organizations has their own culture and history, but one thing most of them do have in common is their willingness to milk the settlements in "their" solar systems for tribute. Sometimes these settlements consist entirely of slaves which have been captured elsewhere, or free people who decided to take their chances and settle on a promising planet despite its hazardous location. Either way, these settlements are a great way for the pirate factions to recruit new members, find new slaves and extract tribute in the form of credits, foodstuffs or manufactured goods.

Normally, the pirate organizations ban all settlements in their territory from having any form of high-tech weaponry in their possession, diligently enforcing this rule. This prevents the suppressed peoples from fighting back most of the time ... but with all rules, there are exceptions.

Is from a mission "the Uprising", apparently.