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General Discussion => The Speakeasy: OOG/Off-topic Discussion => Topic started by: Wanoah on 20 Sep 2012, 10:40
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How Many Alien Worlds Exist? (http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120821-how-many-alien-worlds-exist) A neat little thing that let's you play with the Drake Equation. Enjoy. :)
NB This is the BBC's international site. If you live in the UK, you'll have to fool it into thinking you live somewhere else. I used Google Translate, personally.
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neat, so today's estimates put the number between 1 and roughly 70,000.
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For their sake, I hope the poor bastards find us before we find them.
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Well, with current theories on "warp travel" (namely that it's theoretically possible now) we could be travelling to other star systems in less than 100 years. Potentially, with ships football field sized in length, powered by a power supply the size of the Voyager probes, at 10 times the speed of light.
"All these worlds are yours" and such, eh? ;)
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Well, with current theories on "warp travel" (namely that it's theoretically possible now) we could be travelling to other star systems in less than 100 years. Potentially, with ships football field sized in length, powered by a power supply the size of the Voyager probes, at 10 times the speed of light.
"All these worlds are yours" and such, eh? ;)
Pretty epic yeah. I really really hope I live long enough to see that.
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I used to hope I'd live long enough to see that. But then I thought about the nature of humans.
If I do live to see some kind of Avatar-style encounter between newly spacebound humans and another culture that hasn't developed quite as far, I will witness the greatest killing in recorded history. I will witness the first tentative anthro(?)pological research into this wonderful new species, followed shortly by the discovery of something they have that we want, and our culture punchfucking their culture straight into the history books. "We encountered a wonderful pre-industrial alien species, studied their art, music, and culture, then discovered we can get a killer buzz from snorting their powdered lungs. Their existence lasted eleven years after first contact. We keep a few specimens in zoos, but for some reason, they've lost the urge to breed."
If I live long enough to witness the encounter between a more advanced species and ourselves, I just hope I have enough time to pull out a lawn chair and enjoy the lights as their orbital bombardment commences. Such a species would rapidly recognize that if ours were allowed to spread, it would be to the violent exclusion of all others in our vicinity.
It's a scary thought, but if humankind wants to survive in the long term, it needs to think about Darwinism on an interstellar scale. It does want to survive, certainly, but whether its survival is a good thing? That's a question for the Galactic Council of Enlightened Species, not us.
Humans by nature treasure life, unless it's not our own, or our immediate family's. Beyond that we're perfectly willing to kill other forms of advanced life, as hilariously demonstrated by Terry Jones and his most recent movie. Introduce the element of the alien other, and we'll be lining up to find reasons to bomb the six-legged fuckers.
Imagine a scenario: the first human interstellar exploration vessel encounters a planet with sentient life. They're iron-age, but their advancement is faster than ours. They went from stone to bronze to iron in a third of the time humankind did. They pose no threat now, but they might in a few centuries. Now tell me that every military planner on earth didn't just get started on a giant planet-killing bomb project, to nip the issue in the bud before it becomes significant?
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"All these worlds are yours" and such, eh? ;)
Except Europa. Attempt no landings there.
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If I do live to see some kind of Avatar-style encounter between newly spacebound humans and another culture that hasn't developed quite as far, I will witness the greatest killing in recorded history. I will witness the first tentative anthro(?)pological research into this wonderful new species, followed shortly by the discovery of something they have that we want, and our culture punchfucking their culture straight into the history books. "We encountered a wonderful pre-industrial alien species, studied their art, music, and culture, then discovered we can get a killer buzz from snorting their powdered lungs. Their existence lasted eleven years after first contact. We keep a few specimens in zoos, but for some reason, they've lost the urge to breed."
I have no problem with this, despite the hyperbole. The universe is a harsh place. Any species we encounter is not likely to be less aggressive than ours - indeed, a good case can be made that any species likely to achieve sentience will be at least omnivorous and probably carnivorous, leading to high out-of-group aggression.
If any individual doesn't want to survive, the rest of us don't particularly mind. But humanity as a whole has a strong desire for survival, and rightly so, as survival is the basis for anything else. No morality, no ethics, and no logic can come before the value of survival - those things are all followers - latecomers after, if you will - of survival choices. Therefore, if another species threatened our survival, or even if wiping them out made our survival more likely, then that is what we should do.
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I am reminded of the Gift of Mercy (http://www.creepypasta.com/the-gift-of-mercy/). It is a short story. Relevant to this conversation.
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If I live long enough to witness the encounter between a more advanced species and ourselves, I just hope I have enough time to pull out a lawn chair and enjoy the lights as their orbital bombardment commences. Such a species would rapidly recognize that if ours were allowed to spread, it would be to the violent exclusion of all others in our vicinity.
It's a scary thought, but if humankind wants to survive in the long term, it needs to think about Darwinism on an interstellar scale. It does want to survive, certainly, but whether its survival is a good thing? That's a question for the Galactic Council of Enlightened Species, not us.
There is a book about this "Way Station (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Way_Station_(novel))." But it also touches on how much we might not matter initially.
Humans by nature treasure life, unless it's not our own, or our immediate family's. Beyond that we're perfectly willing to kill other forms of advanced life, ... Introduce the element of the alien other, and we'll be lining up to find reasons to bomb the six-legged fuckers.
Imagine a scenario: the first human interstellar exploration vessel encounters a planet with sentient life. They're iron-age, but their advancement is faster than ours. They went from stone to bronze to iron in a third of the time humankind did. They pose no threat now, but they might in a few centuries. Now tell me that every military planner on earth didn't just get started on a giant planet-killing bomb project, to nip the issue in the bud before it becomes significant?
I think I have seen this scenario before... only the Tau luck out in that the Imperium is suddenly distracted by invading Tyranid swarms!
I think that for ~30 light years around us, we are good right now. No one else is broadcasting/monitoring radio signals or they briefly listened and decided to STFU. By ~2050, I think we will be able to say with some confidence that we are good for ~50 light years around us.
Even at 10xc, it still takes 150 days to get to get to Alpha Centauri and I haven't seen much on FTL-comm. Gliese 581 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_581) (a solid FTL exploration target), is 22-light years away. Opportunity for AI probes to go there and survey and come back, maybe.
Interstellar war? @ 10xc? You have to really, really, really want them dead or the unobtainum they are sitting on. Space is big.
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Interstellar war? @ 10xc? You have to really, really, really want them dead or the unobtainum they are sitting on. Space is big.
True enough, and just exploiting the resources of our own solar system (asteroid mining, gas giant mining, colonization and habitats) is almost certainly enough to keep us going just fine for thousands of years. Space is not only vast, but there's probably enough for everyone anyway. So, in other words, while I'd condemn another species to extinction in favor of our own, even a sentient one, I doubt that such would prove necessary.
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I am reminded of the Gift of Mercy (http://). It is a short story. Relevant to this conversation.
I am interested but link is borked
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fixed.
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Even at 10xc, it still takes 150 days to get to get to Alpha Centauri and I haven't seen much on FTL-comm. Gliese 581 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_581) (a solid FTL exploration target), is 22-light years away. Opportunity for AI probes to go there and survey and come back, maybe.
At 10x speed of light, 2.2 years away. ;) We could send a probe there and back, and spend another 16 years or so developing telescopes to see it arrive. Heck, we could easily send people there maybe? They might not be in great physical shape when the get back, but if you've got the ability to manipulate space to that degree, you could probably develop some form of artificial gravity as well (maybe not, but one can dream)!
mind=blown
This is the type of research that needs funding, because not only would it help interstellar travel, but interplanetary travel within our own star system. New resources, new discoveries, all that. Maybe even a reason for everyone to work together...?
Interstellar war? @ 10xc? You have to really, really, really want them dead or the unobtainum they are sitting on. Space is big.
I don't think we're that stupid, but it's a possibility.
Best way to use the technology would be to send people out and spread humanity across the stars; I think that the colonization of the Americas would be a good analogy. Definitely room for an idiot to try and play missionary/warlord, but it's more likely we'd be at a serious disadvantage.
I'd rather look at the positives of such breakthroughs. The world would seem a whole lot smaller (and bigger at the same time, paradoxically), and the Galaxy a bit brighter. I know that if this were to happen in my lifetime, I'd want to try my luck somewhere new. I'd gladly give up the comforts of home for a new start somewhere else.
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Re, Istvaan's point about hope they find us first, I really hope its the other way round.
As Stephen Hawking points out, theres nothing to suggest that any potential visitor would be a benevolent giver of knowledge. The odds are just as good that they're less interested in us, and more interested in the planet we happen to occupy.
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Even at 10xc, it still takes 150 days to get to get to Alpha Centauri and I haven't seen much on FTL-comm. Gliese 581 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliese_581) (a solid FTL exploration target), is 22-light years away. Opportunity for AI probes to go there and survey and come back, maybe.
At 10x speed of light, 2.2 years away. ;) We could send a probe there and back, and spend another 16 years or so developing telescopes to see it arrive. Heck, we could easily send people there maybe? They might not be in great physical shape when the get back, but if you've got the ability to manipulate space to that degree, you could probably develop some form of artificial gravity as well (maybe not, but one can dream)!
Not disagreeing. Pointing out "potential targets" for FTL exploration. FTL mobility without FTL-comm has interesting implications for an interstellar connected species. Even intra-Sol traffic changes radically, as hard media that can be moved by a messenger becomes faster than light-communications.
Until we have begun sending more people into space in general and for longer duration (more than 6 months) and grown beyond LEO, we will not have demonstrated the capability to also go to another star with utilizing this technology.
This is the type of research that needs funding, because not only would it help interstellar travel, but interplanetary travel within our own star system. New resources, new discoveries, all that. Maybe even a reason for everyone to work together...?
Interstellar war? @ 10xc? You have to really, really, really want them dead or the unobtainum they are sitting on. Space is big.
I don't think we're that stupid, but it's a possibility.
Best way to use the technology would be to send people out and spread humanity across the stars; I think that the colonization of the Americas would be a good analogy. Definitely room for an idiot to try and play missionary/warlord, but it's more likely we'd be at a serious disadvantage.
I'd rather look at the positives of such breakthroughs. The world would seem a whole lot smaller (and bigger at the same time, paradoxically), and the Galaxy a bit brighter. I know that if this were to happen in my lifetime, I'd want to try my luck somewhere new. I'd gladly give up the comforts of home for a new start somewhere else.
B162 (http://b612foundation.org), SpaceX (http://www.spacex.com/), Virgin (http://www.virgin.com/), MarsOne (http://mars-one.com/en/), Planetary Resources (http://www.planetaryresources.com/), are all working towards goals that open up the solar system or defend the Earth from known hazards. Their projects are all reasons "we should work together," and yet we failed to grasp the importance of their efforts, decade after decade as...
(http://www.nss.org/settlement/L5news/graphics/resources.gif)
:cry:
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They're made out meat.
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I like the tiny speech ballon saying "we could use that boat to attack the other side of the island".
what's the date on the picture ?
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They're made out meat.
Not necessarily meat that agrees with our biology.
I like the tiny speech ballon saying "we could use that boat to attack the other side of the island".
what's the date on the picture ?
July 1981
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Heh, Lost. Classic J.J. Abrams and company.
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That pic is awesome.
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They're made out meat.
Not necessarily meat that agrees with our biology.
It's a short story that tries to explain Fermi's Paradox, IE "If Drakes Equation shows that there are tonnes of alien civilizations out there, why haven't heard from them".
The answer, according to the story, is that WE are made out meat. Who wants to talk to meat? That's gross.
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We're not alone, just unpopular?
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Youtube Adaptation (http://"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaFZTAOb7IE"). I highly enjoy this. Americans might recognize one of the guys as the guy who does/did Cash Cab (Here in Canada we have Adam Growe)
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The Gap trilogy described a future quite like the one painted here.
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The problem is not real-state in space, nor the quantity of resources in said real state, but the "habitability" degree of it....
Unless we start developing real ecopioesis or a better way to apply RIS (resources in situ), we are stuck to other "earth-like" planets, which i bet are much less than the most optimistic value in the equation.
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They're made out meat.
Not necessarily meat that agrees with our biology.
It's a short story that tries to explain Fermi's Paradox, IE "If Drakes Equation shows that there are tonnes of alien civilizations out there, why haven't heard from them".
The answer, according to the story, is that WE are made out meat. Who wants to talk to meat? That's gross.
We have only had the capability to listen for ~100 years. We have only been actively listening for ~50 years and concurrently stood on the brink of wiping ourselves out.
Now, another civilization has to have been broadcasting at sufficient power in our direction for us to hear them over the noise floor and have been doing so at a time enabling us to hear them while we were listening. If another civilization developed radio while Rome was busy transforming from a Republic to Empire and wiped itself out* by the time Rome fell to the Goths, there is a ~500 year time span for us to hear them. If they are ~1500 ly away, we have may have missed them. If they are 2000 ly away, we should just now start to hear them.
I think it is fair to say that there are likely no radio emitting civilizations within ~50 light years of Earth, but we also do not scan the whole sphere of the sky in across the spectrum continuously. So we aren't even listening all that well.
*There is an option for the civilization to abandon the EM spectrum for some other means of communication very rapidly and appearing to have been wiped out.
The problem is not real-state in space, nor the quantity of resources in said real state, but the "habitability" degree of it....
Unless we start developing real ecopioesis or a better way to apply RIS (resources in situ), we are stuck to other "earth-like" planets, which i bet are much less than the most optimistic value in the equation.
The term used in "Case for Mars" and at NASA is In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) and there has been a lot of effort put into ISRU of both Lunar and Martian resources.
There are those that argue we shouldn't actually crawl back into the deep gravity wells of large planetiods at all, carving out Asteroids and building O'Neill Cylinders (Lagrange point colonies).
Artificial worlds will be built and their inefficiencies will require trade. Basic commodities like water, nitrogen, sodium, etc will become important raw materials. These artificial worlds will either mine those commodities out of uninhabitable worlds or produce finished products from raw imports.
(I know a lot about this stuff...)
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The term used in "Case for Mars" and at NASA is In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) and there has been a lot of effort put into ISRU of both Lunar and Martian resources.
There are those that argue we shouldn't actually crawl back into the deep gravity wells of large planetiods at all, carving out Asteroids and building O'Neill Cylinders (Lagrange point colonies).
Artificial worlds will be built and their inefficiencies will require trade. Basic commodities like water, nitrogen, sodium, etc will become important raw materials. These artificial worlds will either mine those commodities out of uninhabitable worlds or produce finished products from raw imports.
(I know a lot about this stuff...)
There has been quite the number of postulates or economic studies of the topic, i've read a few of them, but all base their basic starting point of the "unmeasurable gain" of having two inhabited planets, or several space stations, or whatever...
The point stands when you have that station inhabited by a few million people already, not when its starting with 100 and life is 99% survival.....so the real issue is how you make that first step? and the only answer i can see that puts us as species on the "space-path" is extinction....