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Author Topic: Meanwhile in Ukraine  (Read 14195 times)

Vic Van Meter

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #45 on: 20 Feb 2014, 11:52 »

I am exhibiting a trait known as "self restraint".

Perhaps you could expand your own studies on its benefits in regards to human interaction.

As an aside, I had an ex like that once who would never fight or emote.  Eventually I discovered that the man who yI used to say about "he is my rock", was in fact, an emotionally stunted, actual, rock.

I'd be more worried about that, except I seem to have a roughly equal amount of people who think I'm a cold, unfeeling bastard and a hot-headed, argumentative bastard.  I just never see a reason to get angry.  Take your point for instance.  What am I supposed to take from it?  You don't think I'm very sensitive.  That might be true or not, it's an issue of perspective.  Is it something for me to worry about?  My wife seems to only worry about it occasionally because she's used to people screaming at her to make a point.  It helps me a lot at my job and at home to stay calm and collected at all times and it comes naturally, for the most part.

And in the end, we're all random people on the internet whose lives very often have no connection on the great venn diagram of life.  At this point, all we know is that most of us are roleplayers and play or played EVE online.  Why should I expect anybody here to really know and/or care how I feel about any issue?  And more importantly, should I want them to?  Would I rather tell these people to worry about what they say or keep them honest so I know what they're really thinking?

I know people are going to say things that aren't going to be very sensitive to my feelings.  That's okay.  I'm a big kid.  I don't think self-restraint means not talking about something, especially something you actually care about.  It's about keeping your pride for yourself where nobody can touch it and expecting people to disagree with you or, I suppose in this case, agree with an insufficient amount of zeal.

Pretending that I believe something else when I just don't have a viable reason to change my perspective doesn't really sound like restraint, nor is just deciding to leave the conversation because my perspective isn't going to make someone happy.  I'd feel insulted if someone treated me like a child that couldn't control his temper.

I just wouldn't be angry about it.

I think it's basically safe to say that Ukraine is in the full swing of a revolution, with the west and Russia meddling for their own interests. Let's not forget that it was the EU who first gave the ultimatum "it's either us or Russia, no deal with both". Putin, obviously not wanting to lose yet more influence in the world, pulled some strings and attempted to ensure it was his side that won out. Now the west is actively encouraging the protestors and suggesting it is their right to depose the government, stopping just short of publically calling for an armed revolt. Russia, of course, is going to try every dirty trick in the book to stop that from happening.

It's like the cold war all over again, except I think Russia might be dangerously desperate, and the west dangerously cocky. This also has greated suggestions for the greater Balkans region.
Aldrith, why do you assume Russia is desperate here? On the contrary, the West seems to be acting far more desperate. Ultimatums, encouraging armed rebellion, etc. Putin knows his influence is substantial, and the West is finally admitting it by taking his influence seriously.

There's a pair of conflicting issues at this point, I think.  Russia has a lot of international power these days for two reasons that I can see, first that they're essentially supplying gas to the entirety of Europe, second that they're picking up the slack for countries that the U.S. and E.U. turn their noses up at as far as business goes (usually for good reason).  The problem for them is that the countries close to them aren't usually as happy with that influence as they'd like.

On that note, Putin is very angsty about former U.S.S.R. holdings wanting to join the E.U. instead of their Kroger-brand trade union.  Unfortunately, that puts the E.U.'s influence in their portion of the country in direct conflict with Russia's people in the eastern part.  On the ground, I don't think things are that simple, but even the President's supporters don't seem too comfortable with the way Yanukovych dropped his pants, grabbed his ankles, and thanked Putin after he'd finished.  The problem is that the President's supporters have guns and the protesters are firing molotov cocktails from giant slingshots.

So it's hard to say that there are really two sides when one is so heavily armed and the other so vocal.  It's hard to say, at least from where I'm standing which opinion is actually in the majority.  I'd hazard to say the pro-E.U. side only because, if it had just been some relatively minor band of anarchists, they'd have been gone by now.  But it's hard to speculate.
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Aldrith Shutaq

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #46 on: 20 Feb 2014, 11:55 »

Aldrith, why do you assume Russia is desperate here? On the contrary, the West seems to be acting far more desperate. Ultimatums, encouraging armed rebellion, etc. Putin knows his influence is substantial, and the West is finally admitting it by taking his influence seriously.

That's not desperation, that's confidence in their ability to push their own influence at the expense of Russia's. The EU has absolutely nothing to lose if Ukraine goes with Russia, but Ukraine stands to lose a lot. The people know this and are now trying to prevent the government (which Russia pretty much bought out) from economically siding with the less desirable foreign master. The west has all the power here, and is stoking the fire hoping it will fly into Russia's face, which it looks like it is.

Putin is probably desperate because Russia is already at a severe disadvantage globally as the US and EU expand their influence right to their own borders. He is also fending the west off from Syria, another one of his few foreign allies, which he will probably lose eventually since Syria itself is in chaotic ruins and Assad has been reduced to struggling just to keep himself alive. Also remember there is a sizeable Russian minority in the Ukraine itself and he probably does not want to see them suffer at the hands of whatever government replaces the current one, since ethnic tensions do exist in the country and could turn still more ugly if the Ukrainian majority want to take retaliatory measures on the Russians for contributing to this whole mess.

There are an awful lot of complicated matters going on here, and it's not all about the Ukrainian people. Giants are staring each other down here.
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Gaven Lok ri

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #47 on: 20 Feb 2014, 11:56 »

I think that making this about russia v west is a serious failure to understand the internal issues in Ukraine. It seems to be much more about local corruption than anything else.

Putting a cold war lens on it does disservice to the people involved.
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Louella Dougans

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #48 on: 20 Feb 2014, 11:57 »

Also:

Berkut in Ternopilhas joined the protesters.

The officers swore on the Bible, being surrounded by about 6000 – 7000 residents of the city.

I have very mixed reactions to that kind of news.  I think it is good for Ternopil, but the repercussions for the protest/revolution/civil unrest as a whole maybe very, very bad.  It means that paramilitary forces are starting to divide, which means the opposition side is "gaining access to hardware" that can only lead to escalation.  It does not necessarily mean they actually have access to the hardware, but the possibility/threat now exist and the "loyalist" may want to ensure the unrest is crushed sooner.



Seems to be a picture from Lviv, rather than Kiev, but the protestors already have the "access to hardware", that would be seen by some as reason to order military action.

And the news said, that Russian forces are already on the ground and in action in Kiev. Actual Russian paramilitary police units.
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Gaven Lok ri

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #49 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:04 »

The Kiev protests have a paramilitary core, its obvious in their organization and effectiveness. The fact that major gunfire didn't break out till today was a strategic decision, not an issue of access to equipment.

The level of violence today is extremely depressing.
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Jace

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #50 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:06 »

So it's hard to say that there are really two sides when one is so heavily armed and the other so vocal.  It's hard to say, at least from where I'm standing which opinion is actually in the majority.  I'd hazard to say the pro-E.U. side only because, if it had just been some relatively minor band of anarchists, they'd have been gone by now.  But it's hard to speculate.

I find much it interesting on a broad scale in that Putin has been slowly gaining more and more international influence, but due to his autocratic tendencies, people tend to write him off. I think that is severely mistaken. I know I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but everyone in my department nodded and said, "It's about time someone admitted it," when Forbes declared Putin the most powerful person in the world.

Edit Essentially, I am saying the reverse of some here. The US is losing power, Russia is gaining it. EU is caught in the middle, especially with Merkel not being as powerful as she once was.
« Last Edit: 20 Feb 2014, 12:08 by Jace Sarice »
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Morwen Lagann

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #51 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:06 »

(Disclaimer - I've not been following this issue, or the thread, super-closely. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.)

I'm not sure I'd call either side desperate. Both are looking to exploit weaknesses of the other side by bolstering or making use of the strengths they have.

If I understand the situation, Putin's got the politicians and a fair number of the people in the higher end of the wealth spectrum in his pocket. On the other hand, the west is attempting to stand up for everyone else, and appear to be taking advantage of what looks like - to my view - another version of the Occupy movement, with the key difference being that the people involved are ready to resort to violence to achieve their goals.

It never reached that point in the US, but if it had, I expect we'd be seeing something at least similar to if not worse than, what we're seeing in Ukraine.

/modhat
Also, while I'm at it, it's obvious that this is an issue that is of a more personal nature to some posters than others. If you don't think you can post about it while staying within the rules, don't post. Conversely, just because it might not affect you personally doesn't mean it's OK to just  barf up words willy-nilly without any thought to being respectful to other posters who might be so affected.

Nothing in the thread has been reported for needing a check from the mods so far, but we'll be keeping an eye on it just in case.
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Lagging Behind

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Vic Van Meter

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #52 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:08 »

I think that making this about russia v west is a serious failure to understand the internal issues in Ukraine. It seems to be much more about local corruption than anything else.

Putting a cold war lens on it does disservice to the people involved.

To be fair, the reasons the Ukrainians are individually involved might not have much to do with it, but the reason the initial protests broke out was Russia "forcing" Yanukovych to decline the E.U. trade charter, ostensibly for Cold War reasons.  The Cold War may be over, but it'll probably survive all of us in our politics.

I mean, if it was Turkey getting the E.U. nod right now, Russia wouldn't have cared.
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Aldrith Shutaq

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #53 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:08 »

I think that making this about russia v west is a serious failure to understand the internal issues in Ukraine. It seems to be much more about local corruption than anything else.

Putting a cold war lens on it does disservice to the people involved.

That local corruption was influenced by Russia's meddling, and the trigger issue is Ukraine's economic and foreign relations future, be it with the west or Russia. Of course the global struggle isn't the only one here, but I think it is going to be more important in the long-run.

I fully recognize Ukraine's internal conflicts, that being they are a poorly carved out nation-state with Ukrainians and Russians being forced to get along in the same country when they have different interests nationally. Shady dealings within the government have contributed to the anger, but they are not the root cause. This conflict has been brewing for over ten years now, with anger building up to this point. These factors are too complicated, and frankly, too specific to discuss in any meaningful way here. We on this forum, varied as citizens of the world, should probably pay attention to how our own governments are going to react to this since none of us are Ukrainian (unless you are, in which case please correct me).

That said, here's Obama denouncing Russia's influence: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/20/ukraine-crisis-obama-attacks-putin-over-russias-role

Also the EU are currently considering sanctions on the Ukrainian government.
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Jace

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #54 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:11 »

This is one of those situations where it befuddles me a bit as to why Obama should say much. We don't have a good track record of getting involved in other country's internal conflicts.
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Vic Van Meter

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #55 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:12 »

So it's hard to say that there are really two sides when one is so heavily armed and the other so vocal.  It's hard to say, at least from where I'm standing which opinion is actually in the majority.  I'd hazard to say the pro-E.U. side only because, if it had just been some relatively minor band of anarchists, they'd have been gone by now.  But it's hard to speculate.

I find much it interesting on a broad scale in that Putin has been slowly gaining more and more international influence, but due to his autocratic tendencies, people tend to write him off. I think that is severely mistaken. I know I mentioned this earlier in the thread, but everyone in my department nodded and said, "It's about time someone admitted it," when Forbes declared Putin the most powerful person in the world.

Edit Essentially, I am saying the reverse of some here. The US is losing power, Russia is gaining it. EU is caught in the middle, especially with Merkel not being as powerful as she once was.

Honestly, I think it's an old metric that doesn't matter much anymore.  I think people like to focus on the U.S. since we were sort of "the last superpower" around, but the most powerful people in the world aren't politicians anymore.  I think, rather than being post-American, the world is becoming post-nationalist, and it has a lot to do with the way information is spread uncontrollably through the internet.

Autocracies tend to retain their power longer since they had so much state control to begin with, so Putin might be losing power slower than everyone else, but even he came out of his last election looking pretty bruised.  If there's desperation, its on politicians that are really fighting to retain their power in the face of global populism.  People everywhere are seeing how other people really live, unfiltered, and it kind of shakes the foundation of culture.
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Arista Shahni

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #56 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:13 »


If you don't think you can post about it while staying within the rules, don't post.

Thank you, Morwen, for explaining my reasons of self restraint in the format we are writing in as determined by the rules we agreed to follow by joining this forum.

Cause, well.  You've seen me lose it. ;)
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Morwen Lagann

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #57 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:16 »


If you don't think you can post about it while staying within the rules, don't post.

Thank you, Morwen, for explaining my reasons of self restraint in the format we are writing in as determined by the rules we agreed to follow by joining this forum.

Cause, well.  You've seen me lose it. ;)

Yes, I have. Last time you lost your shit you abandoned us and went to nullsec. You horrible person. :P
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Lagging Behind

Morwen's Law:
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3) The lack of suitable male partners can be summed up in most cases thusly: interested, worth the air they breathe, available; pick two.

Arista Shahni

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #58 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:19 »


Yes, I have. Last time you lost your shit you abandoned us and went to nullsec. You horrible person. :P

If I stayed, Empire would have burned. ;)

And there are examples of people whose 'free expression for the sake of making their personal stand' which can and has hurt people in this community.

I won't be that girl.
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orange

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Re: Meanwhile in Ukraine
« Reply #59 on: 20 Feb 2014, 12:48 »

This is one of those situations where it befuddles me a bit as to why Obama should say much. We don't have a good track record of getting involved in other country's internal conflicts.

No one has a good track record of getting involved in conflicts between other parties.
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